Key facts
- Bernstein projects prediction market volume to reach $10 trillion annually by 2035.
- This represents a significant increase from an estimated $410 billion in 2026.
- Financial assets like crypto, stocks, and commodities will become the largest category by 2035.
- Sports betting is expected to fall from 61% of volume in 2025 to 38% by 2035.
- Bernstein previously forecast $1 trillion in volume by 2030.
- Regulatory clarity for U.S. sports prediction markets is not expected before 2027 or 2028.
Bernstein has significantly increased its forecast for the prediction market, now projecting annual trading volume to reach $10 trillion by 2035. This revised outlook is ten times larger than its previous $1 trillion by 2030 forecast made in April. The firm's analysts, led by Gautam Chhugani, anticipate a compound annual growth rate of approximately 70% through 2035.
The landscape of prediction markets is expected to shift dramatically, with financial assets such as crypto, stocks, and commodities overtaking sports as the dominant category. Financial assets are projected to grow from 12% of market volume in 2025 to 49% by 2035, while sports' share is expected to decline from 61% to 38% in the same period. Bernstein anticipates the development of new products like KPI markets, allowing trades on specific corporate metrics, and the expansion of perpetual futures beyond crypto into commodities and single stocks.
Bernstein noted that full U.S. regulatory clarity for sports prediction markets is unlikely before 2027 or 2028, citing ongoing legal disputes. Despite this, platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are already processing substantial volumes. Kalshi, which controls about 60% of the industry's volume, has seen crypto's share jump to 20% and commodity trading grow significantly. Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev also indicated a shift, with other categories like crypto taking a larger share on their platform.