Key facts
- Average global lead times for the iPhone 18 Pro jumped to 23 days in week two from seven days in week one, according to JPMorgan.
- Lead times for the iPhone 18 Pro Max increased to 30 days from 19 days.
- The expansion of delivery times suggests demand is digesting initial inventory, aligning with analyst expectations.
- Some iPhone buyers may be opting for more expensive Pro models instead of base models, potentially increasing Apple's average selling price.
- China remains the only major market where lead times are lagging behind prior-year levels for the Pro model.
Apple's iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models have seen a significant increase in delivery lead times in the second week of pre-orders, suggesting stronger-than-initially-anticipated demand. Initially, same-day pickup was available in most U.S. stores, leading some to believe demand was weak. However, data published September 20 by JPMorgan shows average global lead times for the iPhone 18 Pro jumped to 23 days in week two, up from seven days in week one. The Pro Max saw lead times increase to 30 days from 19 days.
These lead times in key markets like Germany, the UK, and the U.S. are now comparable to those of the iPhone 17 series, effectively closing the gap that had concerned investors. JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee had previously suggested that the shorter first-week delivery times reflected initial stockpiling of high-end models rather than weak demand, a view now supported by the week-two data. The speed of this shift is notable, with lead times expanding by 12 days for the Pro and 7 days for the Pro Max in the four days following the start of pre-orders.
Deepwater Asset Management's Gene Munster suggests a "mix story" where buyers who would typically purchase base models are instead opting for the more expensive Pro versions. This trend, coupled with Apple's decision to delay the standard iPhone 18 and iPhone Air until spring 2027, could push consumers to trade up to higher-end models, potentially leading to higher average selling prices and increased revenue. Munster noted that stronger-than-expected Pro lead times suggest buyers are proceeding with Pro purchases as usual, or that new buyers are trading up from the standard tier.
Analysts from Evercore ISI and Morgan Stanley also corroborate this demand picture, with Evercore ISI expecting fiscal 2027 results to surpass current expectations due to consumers leaning towards higher-end models and storage configurations. Morgan Stanley's data from September 16 indicated a two-to-four-week delivery cycle for the Pro and Pro Max four days after pre-sales began, which was flat year-over-year.
The primary concern for bears remains the Chinese market, where lead times are still lagging behind prior-year levels for the Pro model, though the gap is narrowing. Any further deterioration in China, which accounts for approximately one-fifth of iPhone volume, could impact supplier volumes for components from TSMC to Broadcom and Skyworks.