Key facts
- Tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz slowed this week, with only seven commodity vessels recorded on Thursday.
- Preliminary data from Kpler indicates a ten-day average of 15 vessels traversing the Strait of Hormuz.
- Bloomberg reported rising oil flows out of Hormuz, estimated between 6 and 8 million barrels daily.
- Goldman Sachs estimates oil flows out of Hormuz are at two-thirds of pre-war levels.
- ING analysts suggest regional producers are increasingly selling crude outside the Strait of Hormuz.
- Asia's crude oil imports are projected to be around 23.12 million barrels per day in August, slightly down from July.
Tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has slowed below its ten-day average, with only seven commodity vessels recorded on Thursday, according to preliminary data from Kpler. This figure contrasts with 17 vessels the previous day and a ten-day average of 15. While Bloomberg reported rising oil flows out of the chokepoint, estimated between 6 and 8 million barrels daily, other analyses suggest lower volumes. Goldman Sachs estimated flows at two-thirds of pre-war levels, and ING analysts noted that regional producers are increasingly selling crude outside the Strait of Hormuz, indicating market adaptation to current realities.
Despite the slowdown in traffic, upward pressure on crude oil prices persists due to waning hopes for peace talks between Tehran and Washington. Additionally, there is speculation about Venezuela potentially leaving OPEC, which could lead to higher production, though a rapid increase is considered premature given the years of decline in its oil industry.
Asia's crude oil imports are projected to remain weak in August, with an estimated 23.12 million barrels per day (bpd), a slight decrease from July's 23.36 million bpd. Imports from the Middle East increased marginally to 11.11 million bpd in August from 10.76 million bpd in July. However, these levels are still more than 4 million bpd lower than the average of 15.82 million bpd in the three months prior to the start of the Iran war. Analysts suggest that September and October import figures will offer clearer indications of any rebound in oil flows.