Key facts
- Asia's crude oil imports are projected to be around 23.12 million barrels per day (bpd) in August, slightly down from 23.36 million bpd in July.
- U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that Middle East oil exports had rebounded to 15 million bpd and occasionally topped 20 million bpd.
- Ship-tracking data suggests oil flows out of the Strait of Hormuz are approximately half the volume cited by Secretary Wright.
- Imports from the Middle East to Asia increased to 11.11 million bpd in August from 10.76 million bpd in July.
- Asian crude oil imports from the Middle East are still more than 4 million bpd lower than the average of 15.82 million bpd in the three months prior to the start of the Iran war.
Asia's crude oil imports are expected to remain weak in August, casting doubt on U.S. administration claims of a surge in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Preliminary data suggests that Asian imports will be roughly the same as in July, not indicating a significant rebound.
According to data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler, Asia is set to import approximately 23.12 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil this month, a slight decrease from July's 23.36 million bpd. This trend contradicts assertions made by U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright, who stated in mid-August that Middle East oil exports had rebounded to 15 million bpd and even surpassed the pre-war average of 20 million bpd on some days.
Ship-tracking data, however, indicates that oil flows out of the Strait of Hormuz are at best half the volume claimed by Secretary Wright. While Asia's imports from the Middle East saw a marginal increase to 11.11 million bpd in August from 10.76 million bpd in July, some of this rise may be attributed to a brief ceasefire that allowed vessels to move after delays. Nevertheless, these imports remain over 4 million bpd lower than the average of 15.82 million bpd recorded in the three months preceding the start of the Iran war.
Analysts suggest that clearer evidence of increased Hormuz oil flows would be visible in September and October import figures if exports have indeed rebounded.