Key facts
- President Donald Trump announced the U.S. has secured majority control of more than 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan oil.
- Trump claimed this acquisition would substantially lower gas prices for Americans and increase U.S. oil reserves.
- Analysts are skeptical, citing Venezuela's underdeveloped oil infrastructure and the need for substantial investment.
- Experts estimate that developing Venezuela's oil production could take years, not months.
- Current Venezuelan oil production is around 1.2 million barrels per day, with recent increases from existing wells.
President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that the United States has secured majority control of over 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan oil, a move he stated would substantially lower gas prices for all Americans and significantly increase the nation's oil reserves. He also indicated that some of this oil would be used to replenish the strategic national reserves, which have reached a 40-year low.
However, analysts remain doubtful about the immediate impact of this acquisition on U.S. gas prices. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, noted that while Venezuela possesses vast underground reserves, bringing that crude to market would require billions of dollars in investment and several years of work, meaning price changes would not occur overnight or even within months.
Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context, pointed out that Trump's announcement conflates the amount of oil in the ground with the amount that can actually be supplied to the market. He described the 65 billion barrel figure as a "red herring" with little relevance to actual deals, emphasizing that most details determining the deal's impact remain unknown.
Tracy Shuchart, a senior economist at NinjaTrader Live, pushed back against the idea of a quick influx of cheap oil, stating that Venezuela is currently producing about 1.2 million barrels per day, with recent increases largely due to Chevron's efforts on existing wells rather than new drilling. She suggested that the country's reserves represent a stock that will take decades to convert into actual production, with barrels that could move U.S. pump prices likely 5 to 15 years away.
Amina Bakr, head of Middle East and OPEC+ research at Kpler, also highlighted the substantial and consistent investment needed to significantly increase Venezuela's oil output.