Key facts
- Americans wagered between $11 billion and $34 billion on offshore prediction markets in the 12 months ending April 2026.
- The study estimated that 12.5% to 31.5% of all U.S. prediction market activity occurs on unregulated offshore platforms.
- Polymarket, the largest offshore platform, had an estimated $10.6 billion to $26.7 billion in trading volume from U.S. users.
- Future U.S. activity on offshore prediction markets could reach $133 billion annually by 2030.
- The CFTC has proposed new rules that would prohibit certain types of prediction markets, such as those involving war or assassination outcomes.
Americans wagered between $11 billion and $34 billion on offshore prediction markets over a 12-month period ending in April 2026, according to a study commissioned by the Coalition for Prediction Markets. The research, conducted by Rutgers professor Harry Crane, found that U.S. users accounted for 12.5% to 31.5% of the total volume on these unregulated platforms, which are prohibited from serving U.S. customers.
Polymarket, the largest offshore platform, was estimated to have generated $10.6 billion to $26.7 billion of its $55.6 billion in trading volume from U.S. users. The study projects that U.S. activity on these offshore markets could grow to as much as $133 billion annually by 2030, assuming current market share trends continue.
The findings come as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has proposed new rules aimed at governing the prediction market sector. These proposed regulations include provisions to ban wagers on certain controversial outcomes, such as the removal of political leaders through war or assassination. While Polymarket was pushed offshore by the CFTC in 2022, it has since begun a phased rollout of its regulated U.S. platform, though its volumes were not separated in this study due to data unreliability.
The Coalition for Prediction Markets, composed of regulated operators, highlighted concerns that offshore markets lack the customer verification, anti-money laundering controls, and market integrity oversight present on U.S.-regulated platforms. CFTC Chairman Mike Selig has asserted the agency's jurisdiction over these markets, even as some states challenge its authority and lawmakers like Senator Elizabeth Warren question its regulatory capacity amid workforce reductions.