Key facts
- Airbus anticipates continued growth in global air cargo demand, driven by AI hardware shipments.
- Global air cargo demand increased by 7% year-on-year in June.
- Average global spot rates for air cargo rose 38% year-on-year to $3.40 per kilogram in June.
- Demand for AI hardware and semiconductors is compensating for a decline in cross-border e-commerce traffic.
- Specific trade lanes, particularly from Asia Pacific to North America, have seen significant rate increases.
Airbus SE anticipates a continued expansion of global air cargo demand, driven by the increasing shipment of AI hardware and other high-value goods. This optimism persists despite ongoing trade tensions and geopolitical disruptions, with the company believing these factors will not derail the long-term growth of the freight market.
According to Crawford Hamilton, Airbus's head of freighter marketing, short-term volatility from tariffs and geopolitical issues will not impede the market's long-term trajectory. This perspective is supported by recent data indicating a 7% year-on-year increase in global air cargo demand in June, with average spot rates reaching $3.40 per kilogram, a 38% rise from the previous year. The demand for AI hardware and semiconductors is notably offsetting a slowdown in cross-border e-commerce traffic, particularly on Asia Pacific to North America routes.
AI-related freight, though representing less than 10% of total air cargo volume, is significantly influencing pricing. Spot rates on key Transpacific corridors have seen substantial increases, reflecting a competitive fight for scarce capacity. This trend is underscored by Taiwan's robust GDP growth and a surge in global semiconductor sales. The air cargo sector is acting as a critical release valve for time-sensitive components, impacting the allocation model for shippers and logistics providers.
While the market is showing signs of stabilization, it remains tight. Challenges such as labor shortages, elevated fuel costs, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical uncertainty continue to affect the air cargo sector. Load factors have risen, and the competition for capacity, especially with high-tech cargo, is making marginal shipments more expensive and less certain. Industry analysts suggest that AI's impact is substantial, even if it constitutes a small portion of overall volume, as it drives growth on key trade lanes.