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US mortgage defaults stabilize in June, FHA new defaults down 15%

Created at 24 Jul · 2:16 PM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

New mortgage defaults remained stable in June, with FHA defaults down 15% year-over-year, the largest annual decline in over four years. Overall mortgage performance was strong, though early-stage delinquencies ticked higher seasonally.

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Key Numbers

15%year-over-year decline in new FHA defaults
3.55%overall delinquency rate
4.16%pre-pandemic delinquency benchmark (June 2019)
570,000serious delinquencies (90+ days past due)
0.53%active foreclosure inventory rate
2.25 milliontotal non-current loans

Who's Involved

Intercontinental Exchange
Provider of the First Look Mortgage Performance report
Andy Walden
Head of mortgage and housing market research at ICE
Bob Hart
President of ICE Mortgage Technology
US mortgage defaults stabilize in June, FHA new defaults down 15%

↳ Why This Matters

The stabilization of mortgage defaults, particularly the significant drop in FHA defaults, suggests a resilient housing market despite elevated rates. This indicates that homeowners are largely managing their payments, though rising foreclosure activity warrants continued monitoring.

Key facts

  • New mortgage default activity stabilized in June.
  • New defaults among FHA borrowers fell 15% year-over-year.
  • Overall delinquency rate was 3.55%, below the pre-pandemic benchmark of 4.16%.
  • Serious delinquencies fell to 570,000, the lowest in six months.
  • Active foreclosure inventory rose to 0.53%, a six-year high.
  • Total non-current loans were approximately 2.25 million.

Mortgage default activity remained stable in June, with new defaults among Federal Housing Administration (FHA) borrowers declining 15% from the previous year, marking the largest annual decrease in over four years. Intercontinental Exchange's (ICE) First Look Mortgage Performance report indicated that overall mortgage performance was strong, despite a seasonal uptick in early-stage delinquencies.

Andy Walden, head of mortgage and housing market research at ICE, noted that new default activity has leveled off, which is a positive sign. He highlighted the 15% year-over-year decrease in new FHA defaults as particularly encouraging. The overall delinquency rate stood at 3.55%, below the pre-pandemic benchmark of 4.16% recorded in June 2019.

Serious delinquencies, defined as loans 90 or more days past due but not yet in foreclosure, decreased to 570,000, reaching a six-month low. Improvements were also observed in early-stage mortgage performance, with fewer borrowers moving into 30-day and 60-day delinquency categories on both monthly and annual bases.

However, the active foreclosure inventory rate increased to 0.53%, the highest in six years, and foreclosure starts also reached a six-year high. Foreclosure sales saw a 16% increase from the prior year, though they remain 46% below pre-pandemic levels. Bob Hart, President of ICE Mortgage Technology, attributed the market's resilience to high homeowner equity, which helps distressed borrowers avoid foreclosure. Mortgage prepayment speeds slowed in June, influenced by elevated mortgage rates, but remained above year-ago levels.

Frequently asked questions

The 15% year-over-year decline in new FHA defaults is the largest annual decrease in over four years, signaling improved financial stability for borrowers with FHA-insured mortgages.

The overall delinquency rate of 3.55% in June is below the pre-pandemic benchmark of 4.16% recorded in June 2019.

Serious delinquencies, loans 90 or more days past due, declined to 570,000, reaching a six-month low.

The active foreclosure inventory rate and foreclosure starts both reached six-year highs, indicating an increase in distressed properties entering the foreclosure process.

What Happens Next

01The market will continue to warrant close monitoring for default risk.
02ICE's Loss Mitigation solution will be used by servicers to improve borrower outcomes.

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Cadence

How It Developed

New mortgage default activity remained stable in June.
New FHA defaults fell 15% year-over-year.
Overall mortgage performance remained strong.
Early-stage delinquencies ticked higher seasonally.
Serious delinquencies declined to 570,000, a six-month low.
Active foreclosure inventory rate increased to 0.53%, a six-year high.
Foreclosure starts reached a six-year high.
Mortgage prepayment speeds slowed in June.
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Sources

T1
Mortgage defaults level off in June, FHA new defaults down 15%HousingWire

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