Key facts
- Millions of homes in London, Essex, and Kent are at risk of climate-related subsidence.
- Hotter, drier summers due to global heating cause ground shrinkage, impacting property foundations.
- By 2070, up to 1.8 million properties could be affected under a medium emissions scenario.
- Subsidence can lead to significant property value reduction and mortgage refusal.
- The British Geological Survey (BGS) conducted the analysis combining geotechnical data with climate projections.
Millions of homes across London, Essex, and Kent are at risk of sinking due to climate change-induced ground subsidence, according to an analysis by the British Geological Survey (BGS).
As hotter and drier summers become more frequent due to global heating, the ground beneath properties can shrink, causing foundations to drag down. Scientists have identified London and its surrounding areas, as well as a stretch from Oxford to England's east coast, as particularly vulnerable.
Anna Harrison, a BGS scientist, stated that combining geotechnical data with projected rainfall and temperature scenarios for the next century highlights areas susceptible to shrink-swell subsidence. She noted that London faces a "double whammy" of being highly susceptible and experiencing significant changes in rainfall and temperature, compounded by a high density of buildings.
Subsidence can substantially decrease a property's value, potentially leading lenders to refuse mortgages. Visible signs include diagonal cracks around windows and doors, and sloping floors, often requiring costly engineering work for stabilization. Utility pipes may need replacement, and trees and vegetation might need removal.
Projections indicate that by 2070, approximately 500,000 properties could be affected under a low emissions scenario aligned with the Paris Agreement. This number rises to over 1.8 million properties under a medium emissions scenario, reflecting current global emission trajectories. Highly populated areas within London, such as Camden, Islington, and Barnet, are identified as most at risk, with over 26% of the capital's properties potentially affected by 2070 under the medium scenario.