Key facts
- The UN weather agency forecasts an 80% chance of El Niño developing between June and August.
- El Niño conditions are expected to persist until at least November.
- Large areas of the Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea are 5°C hotter than average.
- NASA satellite data shows a large swell of warm water off the coast of South America.
- The Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich satellite has detected signs of El Niño developing in the Pacific Ocean.
- The UK experienced its hottest spring on record for England and Wales.
- The UK is expected to experience more heatwaves this summer.
- NOAA forecasts persistent drought in the U.S. West and Mid-Atlantic.
- New drought is expected in the U.S. Midwest.
- El Niño is linked to above-normal wind shear in the Atlantic MDR through early July.
The United Nations weather agency forecasts an 80% probability of El Niño developing between June and August, with conditions expected to persist until at least November. This climate phenomenon could lead to record global temperatures and trigger extreme weather events worldwide. Supporting these forecasts, large areas of the Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea are currently 5°C hotter than average, signaling a potential "Super El Niño" event. NASA satellite data further indicates a large swell of warm water off the coast of South America, providing additional evidence of an approaching Super El Niño, a rare occurrence with significant global impacts. The Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich satellite has also detected signs of El Niño developing in the Pacific Ocean. In the United Kingdom, the Met Office forecasts more heatwaves this summer, following England and Wales' hottest spring on record. Experts attribute the increased likelihood and intensity of heatwaves to climate change and natural variability, exacerbated by rising greenhouse gas concentrations. A UK minister has not ruled out implementing temperature limits in schools in response to recent heatwaves. Meanwhile, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) June drought outlook predicts persistent drought conditions in the West and Mid-Atlantic regions. New drought is also expected in the Midwest, although some areas in the South and Southwest may see improvements. NOAA also links El Niño to above-normal wind shear in the Atlantic's Main Development Region through early July. Long-range summer forecasts generally indicate warmer and drier conditions than average, increasing the likelihood of heatwaves.