Key facts
- Russia's annual inflation rate fell to 2.4% in April.
- Russia's inflation rate is below the Central Bank of Russia's 4.0% target.
- Brazil's unemployment rate decreased to 5.8% in April.
- Brazil's unemployment rate was 6.1% in March.
- Brazil's average real wages rose 8.9% year-over-year.
- Brazil's average real wages reached a record BRL 3,732.
- Russia's GDP growth slowed to 1.3% year-over-year in April.
- Kazakhstan's National Bank cut its base rate by 100 basis points.
- Kazakhstan's base rate is now 17%.
- Kazakhstan's National Bank upgraded its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 4.5-5.5%.
Russia's annual inflation rate has decreased to 2.4% in April, falling below the Central Bank of Russia's target of 4.0%. This broad-based disinflation is attributed to a strong ruble and the diminishing effect of a prior Value Added Tax (VAT) increase. The decline in inflation may create an opportunity for the Central Bank of Russia to implement a more substantial interest rate cut in June. Concurrently, Russia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth decelerated to 1.3% year-over-year in April, a slowdown compared to preceding periods. This economic slowdown occurred despite a notable increase in retail sales and the continuation of record-low unemployment levels within the country.
In Brazil, the unemployment rate saw a decrease, falling to 5.8% in April. This represents a drop from the 6.1% recorded in March and is below the consensus estimate of 5.9%. Accompanying this reduction in unemployment, average real wages experienced an increase of 8.9% year-over-year, reaching a new record high of BRL 3,732.
Separately, the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) has executed a 100 basis point reduction in its base rate, bringing it down to 17%. This policy adjustment, while generally expected by the market, was larger than anticipated. The NBK has also revised its economic outlook, downgrading its inflation forecast for the end of 2026 with the objective of achieving single-digit inflation. Simultaneously, the central bank upgraded its GDP growth forecast for 2026, projecting a range of 4.5% to 5.5%.