Key facts
- Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are warming.
- The Niño 3.4 index is at a +0.5°C anomaly.
- The current Niño 3.4 anomaly is behind 1997 levels.
- The U.S. is experiencing increased heat driven by the GLAAM tendency.
- Rural debt defaults reached a record high at the end of 2025.
- Itaú revised its Selic rate forecast to 13.75%.
- Itaú increased its 2026 IPCA inflation projection to 5.4%.
- Peru will track real-time consumption data starting May 2026.
- MikeLindenWX shared a weather forecast link.
Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are warming and approaching El Niño conditions. The Niño 3.4 index, a key indicator for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), currently stands at a +0.5°C anomaly. This reading is significantly behind the comparable measurement from the 1997 El Niño event, suggesting the current pattern may be weaker. Some reports indicate Niño 3.4 values have reached almost +0.9°C and show signs of further increase.
Concurrently, the U.S. is experiencing increased heat due to the GLAAM tendency. This pattern is intermittently disrupted by El Niño precipitation, despite ongoing positive temperature anomalies. In separate developments, rural debt defaults reached their highest level in the quarterly series at the end of 2025, according to data from SERASA.
Economic forecasts have also been updated. Itaú has revised its Selic rate forecast from 13.25% to 13.75%. Additionally, the institution increased its projection for the 2025 IPCA inflation rate from 5.2% to 5.4%. Looking ahead, Peru will begin tracking real-time consumption data in May 2026 to offer up-to-date insights into consumer behavior for policymakers and analysts. A weather forecast link was also shared by MikeLindenWX on Twitter, though its specific content is not detailed.