Key facts
- US NFP consensus forecast is 85,000 jobs.
- US NFP forecasts range from 50,000 to 125,000.
- The US unemployment rate consensus forecast is 4.3%.
- 76% of unemployment rate forecasts are clustered around 4.3%.
- Average Hourly Earnings are projected to increase 0.3% MoM and 3.4% YoY.
- The Fed's estimated NAIRU is 4.2%.
The distribution of forecasts for the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report indicates a consensus estimate of 85,000 jobs added, with the broader range of estimates falling between 50,000 and 125,000. The unemployment rate is expected to be 4.3%, with a significant cluster of 76% of forecasts around this figure, which is below the Federal Reserve's projected rate of 4.4% for 2026. Average Hourly Earnings are anticipated to grow by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year. The article notes that the Fed's attention has shifted towards inflation, as it has been above the 2% target for five years. The estimated NAIRU (Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment) is around 4.2%, suggesting that levels below this could lead to inflationary pressures. Consistent upside surprises in US jobs data point to a stable and potentially re-accelerating labor market, which could strengthen expectations for future rate hikes.