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US futures extend gains after July nonfarm payrolls data

Created at 7 Aug · 12:44 PM2 sources↑ Market-relevant2 events
IN SHORT

U.S. stock futures extended gains Friday after July nonfarm payrolls data showed an unexpected decline in jobs, easing expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate hike. Rate futures now price in a 43.9% chance of a hike next month.

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Key Numbers

0.34%S&P 500 E-minis gain
0.76%Nasdaq 100 E-minis gain
0.18%Dow E-minis gain
23,000July nonfarm payroll decline
80,000Expected July nonfarm payroll additions
4.1%July unemployment rate
4.2%June unemployment rate
3.2%July average hourly earnings annual rise
3.5%Expected July average hourly earnings annual rise
2.9%S&P 500 weekly advance
2.7%Dow Jones Industrial Average weekly advance
3.8%Nasdaq Composite weekly advance

Who's Involved

Reuters
Reported on U.S. stock futures and July jobs data
Labor Department
Released the July nonfarm payrolls report
LSEG
Provided data on rate futures probabilities
US futures extend gains after July nonfarm payrolls data

↳ Why This Matters

The unexpected decline in July nonfarm payrolls has significantly altered market expectations for Federal Reserve monetary policy, potentially influencing future interest rate decisions and broader market sentiment.

Key facts

  • US stock index futures extended gains on Friday following the release of July employment data.
  • The US economy shed 23,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in July, contrary to economists' expectations of 80,000 additions.
  • The unemployment rate decreased to 4.1% in July from 4.2% in June.
  • Average hourly earnings increased by 3.2% year-over-year in July, below the 3.5% forecast.
  • Rate futures now price in a 43.9% chance of a September Fed rate hike, down from 57% previously.

U.S. stock index futures extended gains on Friday after data showed the U.S. economy unexpectedly shed jobs in July, dampening expectations of an interest-rate hike in September. The Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, significantly below the 80,000 additions economists had forecast. The unemployment rate eased to 4.1% in July from 4.2% in June. Average hourly earnings rose 3.2% on an annual basis in July, compared with the 3.5% economists had expected.

Interest rate futures reflected the shift in expectations, with the market pricing in only a 43.9% chance of a Federal Reserve tightening in September, down from 57% before the jobs report. The probability of the Fed holding rates next month rose to 60.4% from 43.2% prior to the data release.

Earlier in the week, U.S. stock futures had edged higher as investors reacted to upbeat corporate earnings and turned their attention to the July nonfarm payrolls report. Airbnb shares jumped about 11% after the vacation rental company exceeded Wall Street forecasts and raised its full-year outlook. Cloudflare shares climbed roughly 15% after reporting better-than-anticipated revenue and earnings, benefiting from growing demand for technology supporting artificial intelligence applications.

At 9:33 a.m. ET on Friday, U.S. S&P 500 E-minis were up 0.34%, Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 0.76%, and Dow E-minis were up 0.18%. Major Wall Street indexes were on track for solid weekly gains, with the S&P 500 heading toward a 2.9% weekly advance, the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 2.7%, and the Nasdaq Composite positioned for a 3.8% gain.

Frequently asked questions

The U.S. economy shed 23,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in July.

Economists polled by Reuters were expecting 80,000 job additions in July.

The unemployment rate stood at 4.1% in July.

Average earnings rose 3.2% on an annual basis in July, compared with an expected 3.5%.

What Happens Next

01Investors will continue to monitor Federal Reserve communications for signals on future interest rate policy.
02Upcoming economic data releases will provide further insight into labor market conditions and inflation trends.

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Cadence
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How It Developed

US stock futures rose after July nonfarm payrolls data showed unexpected job losses.
U.S. interest rate futures reduced the chances of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September.
The rate futures market now prices in a 43.9% chance of Fed tightening in September, down from 57% prior to the jobs report.

Sources

T1
US futures extend gains after July nonfarm payrolls dataReuters
T2
US Stock Futures Rise as Markets Await July Payrolls Dataeconotimes.com

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