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UK private sector wage growth slows to five-year low

Created at 21 Jul · 7:06 AM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

UK private sector wage growth has slowed to its lowest rate in five years, falling to 3.6% between September and November. This easing is seen as encouraging for the Bank of England's efforts to control inflation and return it to its 2% target.

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Key Numbers

3.6%private sector wage growth
5 yearslowest private sector wage growth rate
7.9%public sector wage growth
135,000fall in people on company payrolls
5.1%unemployment rate
2%Bank of England inflation target

Who's Involved

Office for National Statistics (ONS)
provided official figures on wage growth and employment
Sanjay Raja
chief UK economist at Deutsche Bank, commented on easing pay growth
Bank of England
monitoring inflation and interest rates
Liz McKeown
director of economic statistics at the ONS
Yael Selfin
chief economist at KPMG UK, predicted unemployment rate increase

↳ Why This Matters

The slowdown in private sector wage growth is a key indicator for the Bank of England as it seeks to manage inflation. Lower wage pressures can reduce consumer demand, potentially allowing the central bank to consider interest rate cuts sooner.

Key facts

  • Private sector wage growth in the UK eased to 3.6% between September and November.
  • This is the lowest rate of private sector pay growth recorded in five years.
  • Public sector wage growth was significantly higher at 7.9%.
  • The number of people on company payrolls decreased by 135,000 year-on-year.
  • The unemployment rate stood at 5.1%, its highest level since early 2021.

Private sector wage growth in the UK has slowed to its lowest rate in five years, falling to 3.6% between September and November, according to official figures. This easing of pay growth is viewed positively by economists like Sanjay Raja of Deutsche Bank, who stated that it is 'really encouraging' for the Bank of England's efforts to control inflation and bring it back to the 2% target.

In contrast, public sector workers saw their wages increase by 7.9%, a rise attributed by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to pay awards being granted earlier than in the previous year. The ONS also reported a decline in the number of people on company payrolls, down by 135,000 year-on-year, with notable decreases in the retail and hospitality sectors, despite the approach of the Christmas season.

The unemployment rate remained at 5.1% during the September to November period, the highest it has been since early 2021. Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, anticipates that the unemployment rate may rise further in the coming months, citing employers' intentions to reduce hiring due to increased employment costs, including a rise in National Insurance contributions for employers and an increase in the minimum wage.

Frequently asked questions

Private sector wage growth in the UK slowed to 3.6% between September and November.

Slowing wage growth is seen as good for controlling inflation, as higher pay can lead to increased consumer demand and price rises. This allows the Bank of England to be more comfortable with future inflation targets.

The unemployment rate in the UK was 5.1% between September and November, the highest since early 2021.

The decline in workers on payrolls was concentrated in the retail and hospitality sectors.

What Happens Next

01The ONS will release December inflation data on Wednesday.
02The Bank of England's rate-setting committee is expected to hold borrowing costs in February.

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Cadence
CME Headlines
  • Treasury futures fell as 10-Year yields rose.
    20 Jul · 8:35 PM
  • Treasury futures fell as 10-Year yields rose.
    20 Jul · 8:35 PM
  • Euro futures fell for a third session as the dollar firmed.
    20 Jul · 7:42 PM

How It Developed

Private sector wage growth slowed to 3.6% between September and November.
This marks the lowest rate of private sector pay increase in five years.
Public sector wage growth remained elevated at 7.9% due to earlier pay awards.
The number of people on company payrolls fell by 135,000 year-on-year.
Unemployment rate remained at 5.1%, the highest since early 2021.
Economists predict further increases in the unemployment rate.
Employers are signaling intentions to reduce hiring due to higher employment costs.

Sources

T1
Private sector wage growth hits six year lowSky News · Business
T2
Wage growth slows as number of people employed falls - BBCbbc.co.uk
T2
UK private sector wage growth cools to 3.6% as ... - Financial Timesft.com

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