Key facts
- Scientists anticipate the official declaration of an El Nino event on June 11.
- El Nino is a climate pattern marked by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
- Ocean temperatures in the El Nino region are at record levels for this time of year.
- Projections suggest the event could be strong, very strong, or potentially 'record-smashing'.
- El Nino is expected to temporarily increase global temperatures and influence winter weather patterns.
- Strong El Nino events can lead to increased risks of flooding, droughts, and severe storms worldwide.
Government scientists are poised to officially declare the arrival of El Nino as early as June 11, with forecasters from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center expected to make an announcement. Experts warn that the developing climate pattern could become a strong event, with United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stating, "The science is clear: El Nino is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90% certainty." He urged the world to treat it as an urgent climate warning, noting that El Nino conditions "will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world."
El Nino is a naturally occurring climate pattern characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. The phenomenon's name, meaning "the Little Boy" or "Christ Child" in Spanish, comes from South American fishermen who observed unusually warm Pacific waters appearing around Christmas. The broader cycle, known as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), alternates between warmer (El Nino) and cooler (La Nina) ocean temperatures.
Ocean temperatures in the El Nino region have surged to record levels for this time of year, with average water temperatures increasing by nearly one degree Fahrenheit between May 31 and June 5, reaching almost three degrees above the 30-year average. Climate models indicate temperatures could rise by more than five degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the year. Robert Rohde, chief scientist at Berkeley Earth, posted on X that "essentially every model predicts El Nino is coming," with projections ranging from moderate to strong or very strong events. Some even suggest a "record-smashing event," though Rohde considers this unlikely. Climate scientist Daniel Swain also assessed on X that "all signs are increasingly pointing to a significant, if not strong to very strong, El Nino event."
Intense El Nino events are sometimes referred to as "Super" or "Godzilla" El Ninos, generally when sea surface temperatures remain at least 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit above average for several months. Only four such events have been recorded since 1950, with the most recent occurring between 2015 and 2016. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) stated there is an 80% chance of El Nino conditions developing during the summer, with a 90% or higher probability of the event continuing through at least November.
El Nino releases heat stored in the Pacific Ocean into the atmosphere, temporarily increasing global temperatures on top of long-term climate change effects. The ENSO cycle is a major factor in winter forecasts. During an El Nino winter, the southern third of the United States typically experiences wetter-than-average conditions, while the northern third tends to see below-average precipitation. Matthew Rosencrans, NOAA's lead hurricane seasonal forecaster, noted that El Nino winters are usually warmer across the continental US, particularly from the Pacific Northwest to the Great Lakes, with warmth potentially extending further down the West Coast and into the Southeast. Experts also highlight that particularly strong El Nino events can trigger more extreme weather shifts, increasing the likelihood of major flooding, droughts, and severe storms in different parts of the world.