Key facts
- Mexico's central bank is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate at 6.50% in its upcoming decision.
- 34 out of 35 analysts surveyed by Reuters predict the rate will remain unchanged.
- One analyst forecasts a 25-basis-point rate cut.
- Median forecasts suggest the rate will stay at 6.50% through the end of 2026 and 2027.
- Inflation has eased, but core inflation remains a concern.
- GDP saw a 1.5% growth in the second quarter.
Mexico's central bank is widely expected to maintain its key interest rate at 6.50% at its upcoming monetary policy meeting, according to a Reuters poll of analysts. This anticipated hold signals a continued pause in monetary policy following a period of rate cuts.
Of the 35 economists surveyed, 34 predicted that the Banco de México, known as Banxico, would keep the rate steady. This stance aligns with the decision made in June.
While the majority anticipate no change, one analyst expects a 25-basis-point reduction. Looking further ahead, the median forecast from 28 analysts suggests the rate will remain at 6.50% through the end of 2026, with 26 analysts projecting the same level through 2027.
Analysts' views diverge on the future direction of interest rates, influenced by uncertainty surrounding persistent inflation and the sustainability of the recent economic rebound. Although headline inflation eased in the first half of July to its lowest point in over five years, nearing the central bank's 3% target, the core inflation index saw a slight increase.
Economic growth showed a rebound, with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanding by 1.5% in the second quarter, following a contraction in the first. However, analysts attributed some of this growth to temporary factors, such as the World Cup. Analysts have revised their 2026 growth forecast upward to 1.2% from 1.1%, while the finance ministry maintains its projection between 1.8% and 2.8%.