Analysis from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond indicates a significant shift in the job market, with historically stable workers experiencing the most substantial decline in their ability to find new employment. 'Primary workers,' who constitute about 55% of the U.S. labor pool and are characterized by steady work histories, have seen their job-finding rates fall by 13 percentage points from a November 2022 peak to a September 2025 low.
This trend contrasts with past recessions where primary workers' job-finding rates typically dropped the most. Currently, less securely employed 'secondary workers' (about 14% of the labor pool) have experienced a much smaller decline of just two percentage points in their job-finding rates over the same period.
The study suggests a link between these shifts and the increasing influence of artificial intelligence. Roles more exposed to AI have shown the most significant drops in job-finding rates since early 2023. Researchers note that generative AI's ability to boost productivity, particularly for less experienced workers, may be altering hiring patterns and making the labor market more competitive for experienced white-collar professionals, potentially leading to pay cuts.
Despite some job gains in professional and business services and information sectors, the overall U.S. labor market lost jobs in July, signaling that job hunting may remain challenging.
