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Italy EU-harmonised CPI slows to 3.1% y/y in June, below forecast

Created at 30 Jun · 9:58 AM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

Italy's EU-harmonised inflation rate eased to 3.1% year-on-year in June, down from 3.2% in May and slightly below the 3.2% forecast. Core inflation also slowed to 1.6%. The data comes amid high energy costs and is closely watched by the European Central Bank.

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Key Numbers

3.1%Italy EU-harmonised inflation rate YoY June
0.1%Italy HICP monthly change June
3.2%Italy HICP annual rate May
3.2%Reuters survey forecast for Italy HICP YoY June
1.6%Italy core inflation YoY June
1.8%Italy core inflation YoY May
3.0%Italy domestic price index annual rate June
3.2%Italy domestic price index annual rate May

Who's Involved

ISTAT
Italian official statistics agency
Reuters
News agency reporting survey data
European Commission
Publishes country reports on member states' economies
Eurostat
Compiles HICP with national statistical institutes
ECB
Uses HICP for inflation and price stability targets

↳ Why This Matters

The slowdown in Italy's inflation rate, particularly the EU-harmonised figure, is significant for the European Central Bank's monetary policy decisions. Lower inflation could influence the ECB's approach to interest rates, potentially impacting borrowing costs across the Eurozone.

Key facts

  • Italy's EU-harmonised inflation rate (HICP) slowed to 3.1% year-on-year in June.
  • The monthly HICP increase was 0.1% in June.
  • The annual inflation rate was 3.2% in May.
  • The June HICP reading was slightly below the forecasted 3.2%.
  • Core inflation, excluding energy and fresh food, decreased to 1.6% year-on-year.
  • The domestic price index (NIC) showed a 3.0% annual increase in June.

Italy's EU-harmonised consumer price index (HICP) recorded a 0.1% increase month-on-month in June, leading to an annual inflation rate of 3.1%. This marks a slight deceleration from May's 3.2% and falls below the median forecast of 3.2% from a Reuters survey of 15 analysts. The official statistics agency ISTAT also reported that the main domestic price index (NIC) remained flat from the previous month, with an annual increase of 3.0%. Core inflation, which excludes volatile fresh food and energy prices, continued its downward trend, standing at 1.6% year-on-year in June, down from 1.8% in May. These figures are closely monitored by the European Central Bank (ECB) as part of its mandate to maintain price stability, aiming for inflation rates close to, but below, 2% over the medium term.

Frequently asked questions

The EU-harmonised inflation rate, known as the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is a measure of inflation compiled by Eurostat and national statistical institutes to ensure comparability across European Union member states. It is a key indicator for the European Central Bank's monetary policy.

Core inflation is a measure of inflation that excludes the prices of volatile components, typically fresh food and energy. It is used to gauge underlying inflation trends.

The NIC (Indice dei prezzi al consumo per l'intera collettività nazionale) is the main domestic price index for Italy, measuring consumer price changes for the entire nation.

What Happens Next

01The European Central Bank will continue to monitor inflation data across Eurozone countries.
02Further economic analysis will be provided in the European Commission's country reports.

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Cadence
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How It Developed

Italian EU-harmonised consumer prices rose 0.1% month-on-month in June.
The annual inflation rate slowed to 3.1% from 3.2% in May.
The reading was below the median forecast of 3.2% year-on-year.
The main domestic price index (NIC) was flat month-on-month and up 3.0% annually.
Core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) slowed to 1.6% year-on-year.

Sources

T1
Italy EU-harmonised CPI slows to 3.1% y/y in June, slightly below forecastReuters
T2
Country report - Italy - Economy and Finance - European Commissioneconomy-finance.ec.europa.eu
T2
Consumer prices (provisional data)- June 2025 - Istatistat.it
T2
Italy Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY - TRADING ECONOMICStradingeconomics.com

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