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Fed's Waller: Forward guidance 'valuable,' though not at all moments

Created at 6 Jul · 3:03 PM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated that forward guidance can be a valuable tool for monetary policy transmission under the right circumstances, but cautioned against its inflexible use, noting it can hinder policy when economic outcomes are uncertain.

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Key Numbers

one to two yearstime for interest rate changes to influence economy

Who's Involved

Christopher Waller
Federal Reserve Governor discussing monetary policy transmission
Kevin Warsh
Former Fed Chair who has emphasized limiting forward guidance
Bank of Italy
Host of the conference where Waller spoke

↳ Why This Matters

Waller's remarks offer insight into the Federal Reserve's internal discussions on communication strategies, which can influence market expectations and the effectiveness of monetary policy. His nuanced view suggests a potential shift towards more strategic use of forward guidance, balancing its benefits with the risks of inflexibility.

Key facts

  • Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller believes forward guidance can be a valuable tool for monetary policy.
  • Waller stated that forward guidance can strengthen policymaking and be useful.
  • He noted that market interest rates began to rise steadily in fall 2021 when the Fed steered investors toward coming rate hikes.
  • Waller acknowledged that there are moments when providing guidance about future policy has hindered, rather than helped.
  • He suggested that inflexible forward guidance can hinder policy transmission and that in some cases, it is best not to use it at all.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated that forward guidance can be a valuable tool for monetary policy transmission, particularly when used appropriately. In remarks prepared for a Bank of Italy conference, Waller noted that guidance can speed the impact of policy changes, citing the rise in market interest rates in fall 2021 as an example of its effectiveness. He also acknowledged, however, that forward guidance can be problematic when used inflexibly or in environments with uncertain economic outcomes, potentially hindering policy transmission. Waller's comments highlight an ongoing debate within the central bank regarding the optimal use of forward guidance, contrasting with views that emphasize a more limited approach to such communication.

Frequently asked questions

Forward guidance refers to communication from a central bank about its future policy intentions, such as the likely path of interest rates, to influence market expectations and economic behavior.

When effective, forward guidance can help steer market interest rates, thereby strengthening the impact of monetary policy and potentially influencing economic conditions more quickly than adjusting the policy rate alone.

Inflexible forward guidance can hinder a central bank's ability to respond to new economic developments and may be problematic when multiple economic outcomes are equally likely, potentially impeding policy transmission.

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Cadence
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How It Developed

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller discussed the value of forward guidance in monetary policy.
Waller noted that forward guidance can speed up the impact of monetary policy.
He cited the fall of 2021 as an example where guidance led to rising market interest rates.
Waller acknowledged that forward guidance can also hinder policy transmission, particularly when economic outcomes are uncertain.
He suggested that in some cases, it is best not to use forward guidance at all.

Sources

T1
Fed's Waller: Forward guidance 'valuable,' though not at all momentsReuters

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