Key facts
- US banks face projected commercial real estate loan losses of $76.5 billion by 2026.
- This projection is part of the Federal Reserve's 2026 Dodd-Frank Act stress test (DFAST).
- The projected losses represent a 48% increase from the previous year's stress test.
- The latest test included 32 banks.
The Federal Reserve's 2026 Dodd-Frank Act stress test (DFAST) projects that US banks will face commercial real estate (CRE) loan losses totaling $76.5 billion. This figure marks the second-highest level on record, approaching the peak seen in 2024. The projected losses represent a substantial increase of $25 billion, or 48%, compared to the previous year's stress test, although the comparison is influenced by an expanded sample size in the latest exercise which included 32 banks.