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Eurozone inflation rises to 2.9% in July, driven by energy costs

Created at 31 Jul · 9:50 AM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

Eurozone inflation increased to 2.9% in July, up from 2.8% in June, primarily due to higher energy prices. Core inflation also edged up, while price pressures varied significantly across member states, with Lithuania showing the highest rate and Estonia the lowest.

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Key Numbers

2.9%Eurozone annual inflation rate in July
2.8%Eurozone annual inflation rate in June
2.5%Eurozone core inflation rate in July
2.4%Eurozone core inflation rate in June
10%Year-on-year energy price increase
3.3%Year-on-year services price increase
5.6%Lithuania's inflation rate
2.0%Estonia's inflation rate
1.5%Netherlands' monthly price increase
-1.4%Greece's monthly price decrease
1.1520Euro to US dollar exchange rate

Who's Involved

Eurostat
Provided flash estimate for eurozone inflation
Claus Vistesen
Pantheon Economics economist commenting on inflation data
Matthew Ryan
Head of market strategy at Ebury commenting on risks
European Central Bank
Expected to deliver another rate hike
Eurozone inflation rises to 2.9% in July, driven by energy costs

↳ Why This Matters

The rise in Eurozone inflation, particularly driven by energy costs, signals persistent price pressures that could influence the European Central Bank's monetary policy decisions. The varied inflation rates across member states highlight the complex economic landscape and potential challenges for a unified policy response.

Key facts

  • Eurozone inflation rose to 2.9% in July, up from 2.8% in June.
  • Core inflation increased to 2.5% from 2.4%.
  • Energy prices jumped 10% year-on-year, and services prices rose 3.3%.
  • Lithuania had the highest inflation rate at 5.6%, while Estonia had the lowest at 2.0%.
  • The Netherlands saw the largest monthly price increase, while Greece experienced the largest monthly decrease.

Eurozone inflation accelerated to 2.9% in July, reversing a slight easing seen in June, as higher energy costs, influenced by renewed Middle East conflict, pushed prices up. The annual inflation rate surpassed June's 2.8% and met economists' expectations. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also saw a marginal increase to 2.5% from 2.4%.

Energy prices recorded the largest year-on-year jump at 10%, while services prices increased by 3.3%. Despite the headline rise, inflation trends varied significantly across the 20-member bloc. Lithuania continued to experience the highest inflation rate at 5.6%, followed by Bulgaria (4.1%) and Cyprus (4.0%). Conversely, Estonia reported the lowest inflation at 2.0%, with Malta (2.1%) and France (2.4%) also seeing relatively low rates.

On a monthly basis, the Netherlands experienced the sharpest price increase, with consumer prices rising 1.5% from June. Germany saw a 0.9% monthly increase, and France 0.6%. In contrast, Greece saw the steepest monthly price fall of 1.4%, followed by Italy (-1.0%) and Latvia (-0.7%).

Economists noted that headline inflation is expected to remain sticky, potentially staying above 2.5% for the eurozone. The European Central Bank is anticipated to implement another 25-basis-point rate hike before pausing its monetary tightening cycle. Concerns remain about the impact of elevated oil and natural gas prices on the energy-importing eurozone economy.

Markets reacted positively to the data and broader economic sentiment. European equities extended their rallies, with technology shares leading the advance. Germany's DAX 40 and the Euro Stoxx 50 indices reached fresh record highs. The euro also strengthened modestly against the US dollar.

Frequently asked questions

Eurozone inflation rose to 2.9% in July, up from 2.8% in June.

Lithuania recorded the highest inflation rate at 5.6%, while Estonia had the lowest at 2.0%.

Higher energy costs, influenced by the renewed conflict in the Middle East, were the primary drivers of the inflation increase.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, ticked higher to 2.5% from 2.4%.

What Happens Next

01The European Central Bank is expected to consider further interest rate hikes.
02Monitoring of energy prices and their impact on inflation will continue.

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How It Developed

Eurozone annual consumer price inflation rose to 2.9% in July.
Core inflation, excluding food and energy, increased to 2.5%.
Energy prices saw the highest annual jump at 10%, followed by services at 3.3%.
Lithuania reported the highest inflation rate at 5.6%, while Estonia had the lowest at 2.0%.
The Netherlands recorded the sharpest monthly price increase.
Greece saw the steepest monthly price fall.
Markets reacted positively, with European equities extending rallies and the euro strengthening against the dollar.

Sources

T1
Eurozone inflation hits 2.9%: Which countries saw the biggest increases?Euronews

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