Key facts
- Argentina's May trade surplus is projected to be $2 billion.
- High global oil prices and strong agricultural exports are key drivers.
- Weak domestic demand is suppressing imports.
- The energy sector is expected to contribute about half of the surplus.
- The year-to-date trade surplus is projected at $9.5 billion.
Argentina is expected to have recorded a trade surplus of approximately $2 billion in May, according to a Reuters poll of 13 analysts. This positive balance is attributed to elevated global oil prices, which have boosted crude shipments, and strong agricultural exports. Simultaneously, weak domestic economic activity, particularly in the industrial sector, has suppressed import levels, which are estimated to remain around $6 billion per month.
Analysts highlighted that the energy sector is playing a crucial role, generating about half of the projected surplus, signaling a notable structural shift in the composition of Argentina's economy. The May surplus estimate suggests that the country has accumulated a total trade surplus of $9.5 billion in the first five months of the year, a significant increase from $1.9 billion in the same period last year.
Projections indicate a 17% year-on-year increase in exports for May, outpacing an estimated 8% rise in imports. For the full year, a trade surplus of $15.8 billion is anticipated. Argentina's official statistics agency, INDEC, is scheduled to release the May trade data on Thursday at 1900 GMT.