Key facts
- US military action is unlikely to deter Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz, according to the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA).
The Center for Naval Analyses (CNA) stated that US military operations are unlikely to deter Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz due to its asymmetrical warfare tactics. A diplomatic solution is considered the only viable option.
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil supply, and Iran's continued ability to disrupt shipping poses a significant risk to energy markets and international trade, potentially impacting global economic stability.
The Center for Naval Analyses (CNA) has assessed that US military operations are unlikely to effectively deter Iran's ability to control commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, citing the efficacy of Iran's asymmetrical warfare tactics. Joshua Tallis, CNA's research program director, stated that the amount of firepower required for Iran to disrupt shipping is small, making it difficult for the US to neutralize this threat without a large-scale ground invasion. Tallis emphasized that a diplomatic, negotiated solution is the only effective resolution.
Despite US and Israeli strikes aimed at degrading Iran's capabilities, the country has maintained its capacity to severely damage commercial shipping using unconventional methods. These include fast attack craft, cruise missiles, and drones. Maritime security firm Windward reported tracking 219 "speed crafts" in the Strait of Hormuz on July 21, the highest number since May 15. Shipping association BIMCO previously suggested in March that diplomatic means to reduce Iran's motivation to attack might be more feasible than reducing its capability.
Vessel traffic data from Windward indicates a recent concentration of traffic in the northern lanes overseen by Iran, suggesting that Iran's attacks on ships using other routes have been successful. On July 24, all vessels transiting the strait used the northern Iranian-controlled lane. However, overall commercial vessel traffic through Hormuz remains at approximately 9% of prewar levels, with only 12 vessels transiting on July 24.