Key facts
- Iran is signaling it could use its Houthi allies to shut the Bab el-Mandeb gateway to the Red Sea.
- This move would extend the threat to global trade and energy supplies beyond the Strait of Hormuz.
- Analysts believe Tehran is widening the conflict to increase pressure on Washington.
- The Houthis have previously attacked commercial shipping in the Red Sea, forcing rerouting and raising transport costs.
- A Yemeni official warned that closing Bab el-Mandeb could send oil prices to $200 a barrel.
Iran is signaling it could use its Houthi allies to shut the Bab el-Mandeb gateway to the Red Sea, potentially opening a new front against Washington and risking global trade and energy supplies. Analysts suggest Tehran is widening the conflict to increase pressure on the U.S. by extending the threat beyond the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran has already demonstrated its strategic leverage by disrupting traffic through Hormuz. The Bab el-Mandeb, a narrow waterway linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, is crucial for Saudi oil exports and a significant portion of global shipping. A Yemeni official warned that closing this strait could send oil prices soaring to $200 a barrel if Saudi Arabia continues to attack Yemen.
Analysts note that Iran is showing it can threaten both chokepoints simultaneously, transforming the conflict into a challenge to the sea lanes underpinning global energy trade. This situation raises concerns of a slow but relentless 'mission creep' where each side escalates without direct confrontation, potentially pressuring both Washington and Tehran to return to negotiations.
The Houthis have previously targeted commercial shipping in the Red Sea, forcing major companies to reroute vessels and increasing transport costs. This latest threat is described by some as another 'nuclear option' for Iran, to be deployed if Tehran concludes that a return to all-out war is unavoidable. Gulf states increasingly believe diplomacy with Iran has reached its limits, though any wider confrontation would carry significant regional costs.