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Ukrainians divided on war's end: 60% reject Donbas ceding, but same share back freeze with security guarantees

Created at 7 Aug · 3:06 PM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

A poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology reveals that 60% of Ukrainians oppose territorial concessions in the Donbas region to Russia. However, an equal share would support freezing the conflict along current front lines if provided with substantial security guarantees, including funding and weapons.

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Key Numbers

60%Ukrainians opposed to territorial concessions
60%Ukrainians back war freeze with security guarantees
33%Respondents willing to cede territory
7%Respondents undecided on territorial concessions
59%Respondents willing to support war freeze
31%Respondents strongly opposed to war freeze
45%Expect war to end no earlier than second half of 2027
21%Expect war to end by end of 2026
15%Expect war to conclude in first half of 2027
19%Respondents undecided on war end timeline
61%Ukrainians willing to endure war as long as necessary
48%Ukrainians willing to endure war in April 2026
974
Respondents surveyed

Who's Involved

Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS)
Conducted poll on Ukrainian public opinion regarding the war
Ukrainian soldiers
Firing howitzer at Russian positions in Donetsk Oblast
Ukrainians divided on war's end: 60% reject Donbas ceding, but same share back freeze with security guarantees

↳ Why This Matters

The poll highlights the complex and often conflicting sentiments among Ukrainians regarding the war's potential resolution, revealing a public divided between a desire for peace through concessions and a determination to resist territorial loss, even at the cost of prolonged conflict.

Key facts

  • 60% of Ukrainians oppose territorial concessions in the Donbas region to Russia.
  • An equal share of Ukrainians would support freezing the war along current front lines in exchange for security guarantees.
  • 33% of respondents indicated a willingness to cede territory in eastern Ukraine.
  • 59% of respondents would support a war freeze arrangement with substantial funding and weapons supplies.
  • A majority of Ukrainians do not anticipate the war concluding in the near future.

A recent poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) indicates a divided public opinion in Ukraine regarding the ongoing conflict with Russia. While 60% of Ukrainians are opposed to ceding any territory in the Donbas region, an equal percentage would support freezing the war along the current front lines if it comes with substantial security guarantees, such as significant funding and weapons supplies.

The poll was conducted amidst stalled peace talks and continued Russian military actions, which have led to increased civilian casualties due to air defense missile shortages. The survey found that 33% of respondents are willing to give up territory in eastern Ukraine, though most consider this a difficult concession, with an additional 7% undecided.

Regarding a potential war freeze, 59% of respondents expressed willingness to support such an arrangement in exchange for security guarantees, although many did so reluctantly, with 31% strongly opposing the idea. The majority of Ukrainians do not foresee an imminent end to the war, with 45% expecting it to continue until at least the latter half of 2027. The willingness of Ukrainians to endure the war for as long as necessary has also increased to 61%.

The poll, conducted between July 20 and August 3, surveyed 974 respondents aged 18 and older residing in Ukrainian-controlled territory.

Frequently asked questions

Sixty percent of Ukrainians are opposed to territorial concessions in the Donbas region to Russia.

An equal share of Ukrainians, 60%, would support freezing the war along the current front line if it comes with security guarantees like funding and weapons.

A majority do not expect the war to end soon, with 45% believing it will continue until at least the second half of 2027.

The poll was conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS).

What Happens Next

01Peace talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and mediators are expected to continue.
02Russian forces are likely to maintain attacks across Ukraine.

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Cadence

How It Developed

A poll shows 60% of Ukrainians oppose ceding Donbas territory to Russia.
An equal share of Ukrainians would support freezing the war with security guarantees.
Peace talks remain deadlocked amid ongoing Russian attacks.
% of respondents are willing to give up territory, with most viewing it as difficult.
% of respondents would support a war freeze for security guarantees, though reluctantly.
A majority of Ukrainians do not expect the war to end soon.
% of Ukrainians are willing to endure the war for as long as necessary.

Sources

T1
60% of Ukrainians oppose ceding Donbas to Russia, but same share back freezing war with security guarantees, poll showsThe Kyiv Independent

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