Key facts
- Kyiv privately told the Trump administration that Russia may be unable to capture the remaining Ukrainian-controlled parts of Donetsk Oblast even in 2027.
- Russia's territorial advances have slowed to less than 100 square kilometers per month, according to the assessment.
- Moscow demands Ukraine withdraw from Donbas as a condition for peace, a demand Kyiv has rejected.
- The Ukrainian assessment suggests Russia may attempt to mobilize up to 500,000 additional personnel after September.
- Strikes against Russian oil infrastructure have reduced the country's refining capacity by more than 30%, with estimated losses of $15 billion.
- Ukraine's Patriot interceptor missile stocks are reportedly depleted.
Kyiv has privately informed the Trump administration that Russia may be unable to capture the remaining Ukrainian-controlled parts of Donetsk Oblast even by 2027, according to a document seen by The Kyiv Independent. This assessment challenges Moscow's demand that Ukraine cede territory as part of a U.S.-led peace process, arguing that Russia's battlefield gains have slowed significantly.
The document, shared by the Ukrainian Embassy in Washington, indicates that Russia's territorial advances have slowed to less than 100 square kilometers per month. At this pace, the stated objectives in Donetsk Oblast could potentially be pushed beyond 2027. This contradicts the Kremlin's argument that Ukraine should surrender territory because Russia will eventually take it by force.
Russia has demanded Ukraine withdraw from Donbas, which includes Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, as a prerequisite for peace talks. Russian officials have increased pressure on President Zelensky to accept this withdrawal. However, Kyiv has rejected the demand and proposed a ceasefire along existing front lines as an initial step toward a peace agreement.
A White House official confirmed the Trump administration received the Ukrainian assessment, stating the president has a "humanitarian heart" and wants the war settled. The official added that the administration remains committed to playing a constructive role in ending the conflict.
The assessment also includes a warning that Russia may attempt to compensate for its battlefield difficulties by launching a larger recruitment campaign, potentially mobilizing up to 500,000 additional personnel after September. Ukrainian officials have expressed concerns about Russia preparing for another mobilization wave, citing evidence that Moscow plans to do so after Russia's parliamentary elections.
Furthermore, the document details Ukraine's efforts to increase the cost of Russia's war, including intensified attacks on Russian military infrastructure and logistics hubs. Strikes against Russian oil infrastructure have reportedly reduced the country's refining capacity by over 30%, resulting in estimated losses of approximately $15 billion. Ukraine has also targeted around 200 vessels associated with Russia's shadow fleet. The assessment also highlights Ukraine's critical vulnerability: its dwindling supply of Patriot interceptor missiles.