Key facts
- Donald Trump initiated military action against Iran on February 28, a decision that has led to a crisis over the Strait of Hormuz.
- The conflict has disrupted 20% of the world's oil shipments and threatens gas and fertilizer transport.
- The US defense secretary stated the war has cost $37.5 billion so far.
- A ceasefire agreement signed on June 17 broke down after Iran fired on commercial tankers.
- The US is now focused on ensuring oil shipments can resume through the strait.
- Iran seeks to permanently control the strait and charge tolls on passing vessels.
Donald Trump's decision to initiate military action against Iran on February 28, in partnership with Benjamin Netanyahu, has resulted in a significant global crisis centered on the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict has disrupted approximately 20% of the world's oil shipments, with vessels carrying crucial oil, gas, and fertilizer remaining at a standstill.
The US has conducted eleven consecutive nights of attacks on Iran, targeting aircraft hangars and drone storage sites. These actions followed Iran's retaliatory strikes on US air bases and neighboring Gulf states, which have been accused of deliberately targeting essential desalination plants.
Initially aimed at regime change, the US objective has shifted to reopening the strait and reversing the damage caused by the war. The US defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, reported that the conflict has cost $37.5 billion so far, facing criticism from lawmakers over the escalating expenses and the deaths of three American service members.
A memorandum of understanding signed on June 17 provided a brief respite and initiated a 60-day negotiation period. However, this agreement collapsed when Iran fired on three commercial tankers near Oman. Trump subsequently declared the ceasefire over, framing the potential return to unobstructed shipments as a victory.
Iran has signaled its intention to permanently control the strait, including by charging tolls on passing vessels. Experts suggest the US is now in a difficult position, facing either a prolonged war that keeps the strait closed or further escalation to dislodge Iran's control.
There are signs that Trump and Netanyahu misjudged Iran's response, particularly its capacity to seize control of the strait. The closure of this vital waterway represents a doomsday scenario that previous administrations and Iran experts had warned against. The article suggests the US government lacks sufficient Iran experts, with Trump surrounding himself with loyalists instead.