Key facts
- A senior Trump administration official expressed confidence that a deal to end the war with Iran could be signed in the coming days.
- The proposed agreement involves reopening the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting sanctions on Iranian shipping.
- The deal also aims for the destruction and removal of Iran's enriched uranium stockpiles.
- The technical details regarding the uranium stockpile are still being worked out.
- The agreement would be compared to the 2015 JCPOA, which Trump abandoned.
- Iran has previously stated that 'zero enrichment' is a red line.
A senior Trump administration official has indicated confidence that a deal to end the war with Iran could be signed in the next few days. This agreement reportedly includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the US lifting its blockade on Iranian shipping. Officials also stated the deal would involve the destruction and removal of Iran's enriched uranium stockpiles, a critical component for nuclear weapons, though technical details are still being finalized.
If an agreement is reached, it will likely be compared to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), negotiated by the Obama administration and other nations, which Trump abandoned during his first term. Trump has consistently called for Iran to surrender its nuclear materials, referring to them as 'nuclear dust,' a stance that contrasts with Iran's previous assertion that 'zero enrichment' is a violation of its rights.
The fate of Iran's uranium stockpile was a central issue in the 2015 JCPOA, which imposed strict limits on Iran's enrichment activities and included robust monitoring. Under that deal, Iran was permitted to retain only a small amount of monitored, low-enriched uranium, with its stockpile reduced by 98% and enrichment limited to 3.67% purity. Weapons-grade uranium requires enrichment to at least 90% purity.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that Iran was complying with the JCPOA until the US withdrawal in 2018. Despite this, Trump announced the US withdrawal, labeling the deal 'horrible' and 'one-side.' Critics of the JCPOA, like Jacob Olidort, argue that its time-limited nature, particularly the 'sunset clauses,' would eventually allow Iran to pursue nuclear weapons. Conversely, former negotiator Baroness Ashton and Kelsey Davenport from the Arms Control Association maintain the deal was successful in preventing Iran from building a nuclear weapon and that other issues like ballistic missiles could have been addressed later.
In the years following the US withdrawal, Iran accelerated its uranium enrichment program. By June 2022, the IAEA assessed that Iran held 43.1kg of 60% enriched uranium. Following attacks on Iran's facilities in June 2025 by the US and Israel, which officials said significantly set back Tehran's nuclear weapon prospects, the IAEA estimated Iran had obtained 440.9kg of uranium enriched up to 60% purity. IAEA head Rafael Grossi noted that inspectors have been unable to verify the presence of highly enriched uranium in underground tunnels at the Isfahan nuclear complex since the conflict began, and the agency also seeks to inspect facilities at Natanz and Fordo.
Trump has declared his envisioned deal would be 'far better' than the JCPOA. While specific terms remain unclear, Iran is expected to demand economic benefits, including sanctions relief and access to frozen assets. Trump may aim to secure concessions such as a temporary suspension of enrichment and the disposal of Iran's existing stockpile, positioning it as a victory over the previous administration's approach.