Key facts
- A Russian soldier, Alexander Lunin, threatened a military coup against the Kremlin in a viral video.
- Lunin was briefly detained but later released and apologized to President Putin.
- The incident highlights growing criticism of the Kremlin from within the pro-war community.
- Morale among Russian nationalists and pro-war supporters is reportedly extremely low.
- Military recruitment has seen a significant slowdown, with a reported 20% drop compared to the previous year.
- High numbers of desertions and soldiers going absent without leave continue to be recorded.
Dissatisfied Russian soldiers and members of the pro-war community, once considered the backbone of President Vladimir Putin's regime, are increasingly voicing criticism against the Kremlin. This shift is evidenced by incidents like that of soldier-blogger Alexander Lunin, who posted an emotional appeal to Putin threatening a military coup and demanding to discuss alleged mistreatment of soldiers. Lunin was briefly detained but later released and apologized.
While observers suggest the Russian army is not on the brink of revolt, the incident and similar critiques from prominent pro-war figures like Ilya Remeslo, who declared Putin illegitimate, signal a significant development. This growing discontent is attributed to several factors, including the lack of substantial territorial gains on the front lines, Ukraine's successful drone campaigns disrupting supply lines and targeting oil refineries, and domestic issues such as the blocking of Telegram, which has eroded trust in leadership.
Data suggests a slowdown in military recruitment, with figures reportedly dropping by 20% compared to the previous year, although some analysts caution this may be a statistical artifact. Nevertheless, increasing signing bonuses are straining regional budgets, and some areas have resorted to coercive recruitment tactics. Russia also continues to face high numbers of desertions and soldiers going absent without leave, with tens of thousands convicted for such offenses. This declining morale is believed to be affecting the war effort, with soldiers reportedly fighting out of inertia or for financial incentives, and focusing on self-preservation rather than offensive action.