Key facts
- Russia is intensifying air attacks on Ukrainian cities.
- Battlefield advances for Russia have slowed significantly in recent months.
- Analysts suggest Russia's air war aims to mask battlefield weaknesses.
- Ukrainian forces continue to resist and conduct their own long-range attacks.
- Russia's goal of capturing all of Donbas this year may be slipping out of reach.
Russia is intensifying its air attacks on major Ukrainian cities as its war effort falters, with battlefield advances slowing to a near halt over the past month. These devastating air assaults, which killed 23 people and wounded over 130, follow months of stalled progress for Moscow, which has encountered stiffer Ukrainian resistance and faced increasing strikes on its oil infrastructure and military sites. While Russian forces are still making incremental gains in parts of eastern Donetsk, their slow pace threatens to weaken the Kremlin's position in any future peace talks. Analysts note that Russia's goal of capturing all of Donbas this year is becoming increasingly difficult to achieve. Data from the Black Bird Group shows a significant decrease in captured territory in recent months compared to the same period last year. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggests that Russia's escalating strikes on Kyiv and other cities are partly intended to distract from its battlefield struggles and the impact of Ukraine's long-range attacks within Russia. Ukraine recently struck an oil export terminal in St. Petersburg with drones. ISW stated that Putin is using massive strike packages against Kyiv to break Ukraine's will to fight and disguise his weakness. Russia's defense ministry did not respond to requests for comment, while Putin maintains his forces are advancing and could conclude the war soon. The Kremlin has vowed to continue striking Ukraine "systematically" in response to attacks. The pace of Russian gains has been slow, particularly in the Donbas region, where Ukrainian forces still hold significant territory. The front line is often blurred, making precise territorial gains difficult to assess. Some reports indicate Ukraine may have retaken more territory than Russia captured in May for the first time since its 2023 counteroffensive. A senior Ukrainian commander believes Ukraine has a six-month window to gain the initiative. Russia's war machine is also reportedly grappling with shrinking industrial capacity due to Western sanctions and dwindling weaponry stocks, which may be altering the Kremlin's calculus on continuing the war.