Key facts
- Leaked emails from a Russian FSB whistleblower suggest Russia planned a military conflict with Japan in summer 2021.
- The plans were reportedly linked to the dispute over the Northern Territories, occupied by the Soviet Union after WWII.
- The whistleblower indicated that Russia ultimately chose to invade Ukraine instead of Japan.
- Experts believe the leaked correspondence is from a genuine FSB agent.
Leaked emails from a Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) whistleblower suggest that Russia was preparing for a military conflict with Japan in the summer of 2021, several months before launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The correspondence, shared with Newsweek and analyzed by the Wind of Change Research Group, indicates that the Putin regime was seriously considering an attack on Japan, potentially using the dispute over the Northern Territories as a pretext.
The whistleblower, known as 'Wind of Change,' detailed in an email dated March 17, 2022, to exiled Russian human-rights activist Vladimir Osechkin, that Russia was 'quite seriously preparing for a localized military conflict with Japan.' The agent also expressed certainty that war was inevitable for Russia due to the leadership's 'maniacal desire for war,' but questioned why Ukraine was ultimately chosen as the target.
Details within the leaked communications included Russia's alleged plans for electronic warfare helicopters targeting Japan and the initiation of propaganda efforts to label the Japanese as 'Nazis' and 'fascists.' These tactics bear a resemblance to the rhetoric used to justify the invasion of Ukraine. Experts, including Christo Grozev, who specializes in the FSB, have indicated that they believe the emails originate from a genuine agent within the service.
However, the whistleblower ultimately stated that the Russian leadership 'sort of swapped out Japan for Ukraine,' and that the bulk of combat-ready units previously positioned for potential action against Japan have since been redeployed to Ukraine. This suggests that a Russian attack on Japan is unlikely in the near future.