Key facts
- Russia conducted an 18-month drone surveillance campaign targeting nuclear sites in the UK, France, Belgium, and the Netherlands.
- The campaign, analyzed by the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS), involved drones launched from shadow fleet vessels.
- Incidents began in late 2024 and exposed perceived weaknesses in NATO air defenses.
- Targeted sites included RAF Lakenheath and France's nuclear submarine base at Île Longue.
- Drones were likely launched from 'dark sailing' vessels operating with transponders switched off.
- The IISS believes the campaign was orchestrated by Russia's GRU.
Russia orchestrated a widespread drone surveillance campaign over an 18-month period, targeting nuclear sites and military installations across Europe, according to an analysis by the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS). The campaign, which began in late 2024, involved numerous incidents where unarmed drones were spotted flying over airbases and airports in countries including the UK, France, Belgium, and the Netherlands.
Researchers believe the drones were likely launched from 'dark sailing' vessels, operating with their tracking devices switched off, and potentially utilized techniques learned during the war in Ukraine. The IISS concluded that Russian intelligence operated with 'substantial impunity,' exposing a strategic failure in NATO's air defenses, which are designed for conventional threats rather than low-flying, low-cost drones. Governments across Europe have been reluctant to publicly accuse Russia, but welcomed the publication of the report.
Specific incidents detailed include drones flying over RAF Lakenheath and RAF Fairford in the UK, with US nuclear weapons later deployed at Lakenheath. France's nuclear submarine base at Île Longue was also targeted multiple times. Similar incursions were noted over airbases in Belgium and the Netherlands where US nuclear weapons are stored. The report suggests motivations ranged from nuclear surveillance and reconnaissance to mapping military logistics and psychological warfare.
The analysis indicates that drone sightings peaked in late 2025, with a noticeable decrease after European navies began seizing shadow fleet vessels in 2026. The seizure of a tanker named Boracay revealed the involvement of Russian private military contractors, confirming the militarization of these vessels. The IISS assessment suggests a coordinated UAV campaign across more than a dozen NATO countries and Ireland, representing tactical successes for Russia and a strategic failure for allied defenses.