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Russia fuel shortages mount amid Ukraine strikes, raising questions on Putin's strategy

Created at 8 Jul · 5:15 AM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

Russia is experiencing widespread fuel shortages, with long queues at petrol stations across the country, including Moscow. This crisis, exacerbated by Ukrainian drone and missile strikes on oil refineries, is impacting public opinion and economic growth prospects, though it remains unclear if it will pressure President Putin to change his approach in Ukraine.

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Key Numbers

74%Putin's approval rating
52%Russians believing country is heading right direction
20 yearspessimism about economy
3.4 percentage pointsfall in public trust in Putin in one week

Who's Involved

Yekaterina
Moscow resident experiencing fuel shortages
Elmar
Moscow resident concerned about fuel availability and prices
Valery
Moscow resident critical of Russia's preparedness for fuel shortages
Andrei
Moscow resident blaming geopolitics for fuel crisis
Vladimir Putin
President of Russia addressing fuel shortages and Ukraine war
Christopher Weafer
Head of Macro Advisory, commenting on economic impact
Nina Khrushcheva
Professor of international affairs, commenting on Putin's likely response

↳ Why This Matters

The fuel crisis in Russia highlights the growing domestic consequences of the ongoing war in Ukraine, potentially impacting economic stability and public sentiment. It raises questions about President Putin's strategy and whether internal pressures could force a change in his approach to the conflict.

Key facts

  • Russia is facing significant fuel shortages, with widespread queues at petrol stations.
  • Ukrainian drone and missile strikes on oil refineries are contributing to the crisis.
  • The shortages are impacting public opinion, with a dip in President Putin's approval ratings.
  • Authorities are taking measures such as increasing fuel imports and subsidizing prices.
  • Analysts believe the crisis could negatively impact Russia's economic growth.
  • Despite the shortages, President Putin claims strategic initiative in Ukraine and vows further territorial gains.

Russia is grappling with a severe fuel crisis, characterized by extensive queues at petrol stations across the country, including its capital, Moscow. This situation, attributed partly to Ukrainian drone and missile strikes targeting oil refineries, is creating frustration and anxiety among the population, with some fearing widespread shortages and rising prices. Even in Moscow, a city that typically benefits from significant resource allocation, ensuring adequate fuel supply has become a challenge.

While citizens express frustration and concern, public criticism of the government's handling of the crisis is muted, reflecting the broader political climate in Russia. Some individuals blame a lack of preparedness and the broader geopolitical situation, while others express resignation. The shortages are beginning to affect daily life, with rationing implemented in some regions and concerns raised by farmers about the upcoming harvest.

President Vladimir Putin has publicly acknowledged the issues, attributing them to Ukrainian attacks but downplaying their severity. The Kremlin is taking steps to mitigate the crisis, including increasing fuel imports and subsidizing prices. However, the economic impact is becoming more apparent, with analysts predicting a dimming of growth prospects for the remainder of the year.

Public opinion data suggests a potential erosion of support for Putin, with his approval ratings and public confidence in the country's direction showing a decline. Some experts believe the fuel crisis could be a significant factor affecting economic stability. Despite these pressures, analysts like Nina Khrushcheva suggest that Putin is unlikely to yield to external pressure and may instead adopt a more aggressive stance, potentially escalating the conflict in Ukraine.

Frequently asked questions

The fuel shortages are attributed to a combination of factors, including increased domestic demand, disruptions to oil refining caused by Ukrainian drone and missile strikes, and potentially issues with oil distribution.

Authorities are increasing fuel imports, subsidizing prices, allowing the sale of lower-grade fuel, and deploying Cossacks to manage queues in some areas.

Recent polls suggest a dip in President Putin's approval ratings and a decrease in public confidence regarding the country's direction.

Experts believe it is unlikely that the fuel crisis will force Putin to change his strategy; some suggest he may instead become more aggressive.

What Happens Next

01Putin's administration will continue to manage fuel imports and subsidies.
02Further Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure are expected.
03Analysts will monitor economic data for the full impact of the crisis.
04Western capitals will assess potential Russian escalations in response to internal pressures.

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Cadence

How It Developed

Long queues are forming daily at petrol stations across Russia, including in Moscow.
Ukrainian drone and missile strikes are increasingly targeting oil refineries deep within Russian territory.
Fuel shortages are leading to rationing, banned sales of jerry cans, and reduced public services in some areas.
President Putin acknowledged Ukrainian attacks are causing problems but stated the situation is 'not critical'.
Authorities are increasing fuel imports, subsidizing prices, and allowing lower-grade fuel sales.
Public opinion polls show a dip in Putin's approval ratings and increased pessimism about the economy.
Analysts suggest the fuel crisis could be a 'game-changer' for Russia's economic growth prospects.
Experts believe Putin is unlikely to bend to pressure and may instead escalate his actions.

Sources

T1
Russian fuel shortages bite – but will Putin change tack in Ukraine war?BBC News

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