Key facts
- Venezuela experienced intense earthquakes this week, causing widespread building collapses.
- Experts identified older buildings, substandard construction, and geography as key vulnerabilities.
- Microsoft's AI analysis indicated approximately one-third of structures in Catia La Mar were damaged.
- Soft soils and buildings with "soft stories" were noted as significant risk factors.
- Some newer buildings, purportedly built to modern standards, also collapsed.
Older buildings, substandard construction, and geographical factors left Venezuela highly vulnerable to the recent intense earthquakes, according to engineers and experts. The back-to-back seismic events, among the strongest in over a century, caused widespread building collapses, with over 900 confirmed deaths and the number expected to rise.
Microsoft's AI for Good Lab analyzed satellite imagery of Catia La Mar, one of the hardest-hit cities, using AI-based damage assessment models. Their analysis indicated that approximately one-third of the city's nearly 30,000 structures sustained damage.
Experts pointed to several contributing factors, including housing complexes constructed rapidly during recent oil booms, potentially without adhering to best practices for seismic activity. Many older homes, built before modern earthquake standards were adopted in the 1970s, may not have been retrofitted. Furthermore, buildings situated on soft soils were found to compound the danger.
David Cocke, a structural engineer, highlighted the role of soft soils, tall towers, and older concrete structures in the widespread damage, noting that buildings often collapsed floor-by-floor. He explained that modern construction incorporates reinforcing steel connections absent in older buildings. While advanced nations have mandated retrofitting, poorer and middle-income countries have lagged.
Other experts, like Eduardo Miranda, a professor at Stanford University, identified "soft stories"—ground floors consisting of open spaces like garages—and heavy brick non-structural walls as significant risk factors that increase the likelihood of pancaking. Miranda stated that soft stories are a global problem, particularly prevalent in Venezuela when combined with softer soils.
Marcos Ferreira, a geophysicist, noted that the destruction was amplified by the doublet nature of the quakes, where one quake follows another, increasing vibration and hazard. He drew a parallel to the devastating earthquakes in Turkey and Syria in 2023.
Despite Venezuelan government efforts to update building codes after a 1967 quake, the extent of retrofitting is unclear. Following floods and landslides in 1999, a building spree occurred to replace destroyed structures and house displaced people. Notably, some newer buildings, reportedly designed and built according to current standards, also collapsed, leading to perplexity among engineers like Juan Carlos Vielma, who suggested a review of applicable standards and engineering processes might be necessary.