Key facts
- The threat to oil tankers in the Middle East is at its worst since the Iran war began, according to analysts.
- Attacks on vessels in the Red Sea have led to a significant reduction in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Many ships are turning off their transponders to avoid detection while navigating these routes.
- The Houthi militia announced a blockade on Saudi Arabia's Red Sea ports, further complicating the security situation.
- Restoring normal cargo flows through the Strait of Hormuz would require several months even if it were to reopen.
The threat to oil tankers in the Middle East is currently at its most severe point since the start of the Iran war, according to industry analysts. This assessment follows a recent surge in attacks on vessels navigating key shipping routes in the region.
Analysts highlight that the ongoing situation in the Strait of Hormuz is not only constraining oil flows but also that alternative routes are now under threat. Matthew Wright, an analyst at ship-tracking firm Kpler, described the situation as a "problem stacked on top of a problem."
Data from Kpler indicates a dramatic decrease in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with only eight ships passing on Sunday and 11 on Saturday, a stark contrast to over 100 daily transits before the conflict. While a temporary peace deal in early June saw numbers rise, renewed strikes approximately a month later have significantly curtailed activity. Many vessels are reportedly "going dark" by turning off their transponders to evade detection.
Historically, some oil tankers from Saudi Arabia have utilized an alternative route in the Red Sea. However, the Iranian-backed Houthi militia declared a blockade on Saudi Arabia's Red Sea ports on July 20. The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency has reported multiple attacks on ships in the Red Sea over the past week.
Tim Wilkins, managing director of Intertanko, an organization representing tanker owners, stated that the industry is confronting a "broadening, deteriorating, and increasingly complex security situation." He noted that the high-risk area now extends into Saudi Arabian waters and parts of the Red Sea, impacting the freedom of navigation.
Kpler data revealed that 28 commodity vessels passed through the Bab el-Mandeb strait on Saturday, with six of them having their transponders turned off. While the Houthi threat is reportedly targeted at Saudi shipping, leading to approximately 50% of pre-attack levels in total vessel numbers, the number of ships loading crude oil for export to Asia has fallen to about four per day, the lowest since the war began.
A spokesperson for shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd indicated that while some vessels continue to transit the Red Sea, the company is closely monitoring developments and will adjust its network if circumstances change. They added that reopening the Strait of Hormuz would allow ships to leave the region quickly, but restoring normal cargo flows would take considerably longer, potentially three to four months, due to suspended services and redeployed ships.
Despite ongoing talks with Oman, Iran's foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei stated that no agreement is imminent to reopen the strait, citing continued US "aggression." Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, another ship-tracking company, described the situation as the shipping industry being "back to square one" and in a "terrible state" with no clear improvement in sight for any shipping type.