Key facts
- Thailand experienced a 25% decline in visitors from the Middle East from January to May.
- The ongoing Middle East conflict has led to widespread flight cancellations affecting routes to and from Thailand.
- Long-haul travel, particularly from Europe, is significantly impacted due to reliance on Middle Eastern transit hubs.
- Thailand's tourism authority forecasts a 6% decrease in international visitors for 2025.
- Concerns also exist regarding safety perceptions and competition from neighboring countries.
Thailand's tourism industry is facing a significant downturn, primarily attributed to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Between January and May, the country saw a 25% year-on-year decrease in visitors from the region, totaling approximately 150,000. This decline is exacerbated by widespread flight cancellations affecting major airlines that serve as crucial transit points for long-haul travel.
The conflict has led to over 37,000 flight cancellations in the Middle East, impacting around 134 flights to Thailand and specifically canceling 59 routes between Thailand and the Middle East. In early March, overall foreign tourist arrivals to Thailand dropped by 5.69%, with long-haul travelers from Europe, America, the Middle East, and Africa showing a combined decrease of 13.98%. Arrivals from the Middle East alone saw a sharp 76.51% decline during the first nine days of March.
While the Middle Eastern market is directly affected, the Ministry of Tourism and Sports notes that these visitors constitute only about 2% of Thailand's total tourist market, suggesting replacement markets can be found. The greater concern lies with the impact on European tourism, a significantly larger market, as many travelers rely on Middle Eastern hubs for transit. A prolonged conflict of eight weeks could result in an estimated loss of 600,000 tourists.
Looking ahead, the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) forecasts a 6% decrease in international visitors for 2025, with significant drops expected from East Asia (25%) and ASEAN countries (8%). However, TAT anticipates growth from South Asia (15%), Europe (15%), the Americas (8%), Oceania (8%), and the Middle East (4%), projecting a 5% decrease in overall tourist revenue for the year. The sector also faces challenges related to safety perceptions, competition from neighboring countries, and the need to refresh its tourism image.