Key facts
- A fragile quiet holds in southern Lebanon following a US-Iran ceasefire agreement.
- Displaced families are returning to their homes despite safety warnings.
- The scope of the US-Iran truce regarding the Israel-Hezbollah conflict remains unclear.
- Israel has stated its forces will remain indefinitely in occupied parts of southern Lebanon.
- Reconstruction plans and funding for destroyed villages are uncertain.
- Hezbollah has rejected discussions about disarming its arsenal.
A fragile quiet has settled over southern Lebanon following an announcement of a ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran. Displaced families have begun returning to their communities, despite warnings from authorities that it is not yet safe. The truce, however, has left many residents and observers doubtful about a lasting end to the conflict between Israel and the Iranian-backed group Hezbollah.
The US-Iran agreement's specific terms regarding Lebanon remain unclear, though Iran and Pakistan, which mediated the deal, stated it includes a ceasefire in the country. This inclusion was crucial for Iran to bolster its image and influence. The current round of conflict began in March when Hezbollah launched rockets into Israel in retaliation for the killing of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, prompting a significant Israeli military response across Lebanon.
The war has been devastating for Lebanon, with thousands killed and approximately one million people displaced. Even with a ceasefire, many face the grim reality of returning to heavily damaged or destroyed homes. Unanswered questions loom large, including the indefinite presence of Israeli forces in occupied Lebanese territory, the lack of a clear plan for reconstruction, and the future of Hezbollah's extensive arsenal, which the group has refused to discuss disarming.
Previous ceasefire attempts in Lebanon have failed to bring lasting peace, and the deal that ended the last conflict in 2024 did not stop daily attacks. While Iran's pressure and Hezbollah's stated refusal to accept Israeli 'freedom of action' may alter calculations, the fear persists that the world's attention may shift, leaving Lebanon vulnerable to renewed conflict.