Key facts
- Two contradictory US-brokered deals aim to resolve conflicts involving Iran and Lebanon.
- One deal between the US and Iran calls for an immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts.
- A second framework deal between Lebanon, Israel, and the US allows Israeli forces indefinite presence in southern Lebanon and requires the Lebanese army to disarm a local group.
- The framework deal reportedly grants immunity to Israeli troops for war crimes committed in Lebanon.
- Lebanese parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri warned the deal could lead to civil strife and vowed to block its passage.
- Israeli politicians are increasingly viewing Turkey as an existential enemy and part of a new 'Sunni axis' with Syria and Qatar.
Two conflicting US-brokered deals have emerged concerning the Middle East, with one signed between the US and Iran focusing on ending military operations, and another framework deal between Lebanon, Israel, and the US that grants Israeli forces indefinite presence in southern Lebanon. The latter deal has drawn criticism and warnings of civil strife from Lebanese parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri, who vows to block its passage. The framework also obliges the Lebanese army to disarm a local armed group and grants immunity to Israeli troops for alleged war crimes.
These divergent US approaches are attributed to competing factions within the administration: Vice President JD Vance's influence is seen in the deal with Iran, emphasizing de-escalation, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio's strategy is reflected in the Lebanon framework, prioritizing Israeli regional hegemony and Hezbollah disarmament. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has welcomed the Lebanon deal as a blow to Iran.
Meanwhile, Israel's strategic focus appears to be shifting towards Turkey, with Israeli politicians increasingly labeling it an existential enemy and part of a new 'Sunni axis' that includes Syria and Qatar. This rhetoric has drawn a defense of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan from US President Donald Trump. JD Vance has cautioned Netanyahu against relying on a 'kill first' strategy. Israeli politicians Naftali Bennett and Amichai Chikli have amplified concerns about Turkey's regional influence, with Chikli identifying a new 'Muslim Brotherhood axis.' Following the fall of Bashar al-Assad, Israel has also reportedly invaded southern Syria and is pushing for its fragmentation.