Key facts
- US intelligence indicates Iran retains the capability to threaten the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
- Iran and Oman have reaffirmed their commitment to free navigation through the strait.
- The US military has successfully defended commercial ships against threats in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Shipping companies are awaiting evidence of safety before resuming operations through the waterway.
- War risk insurance rates have not yet adjusted to the US-Iran agreement.
US intelligence assessments suggest Iran retains the capability to threaten the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for global oil transit, having previously demonstrated this during a recent conflict. Despite expectations of an agreement leading to the strait's reopening, Tehran reportedly maintains the necessary missile capabilities to disrupt shipping.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and his Omani counterpart, Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi, have reaffirmed their countries' commitment to international law governing maritime navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, stressing the importance of ensuring safe and free passage. The US military reports successfully defending commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz since initiating an assistance program to address regular threats.
However, shipping companies are hesitant to resume operations through the waterway, awaiting concrete evidence that the US-Iran agreement will hold. The chief executive of CMB Tech stated the company would not send vessels through until "100% convinced" of safety. Insurance broker James Reason noted that war risk insurance rates have not yet responded to the agreement, indicating persistent uncertainty among market participants regarding its implementation and durability.