Iran-backed militants' threat to Saudi energy hub could upend Trump's midterm message

On Wednesday, Trump pledged to ramp up attacks on Iran and its proxies following recent assaults on Saudi energy infrastructure and U.S. military installations. He stated, “We’re going to beat the fucking shit out of them,” in an interview with Fox News.

While current Houthi attacks have not caused significant damage, they signal a potential for major escalation in the regional conflict. Mohammed al-Basha, founder of the Basha Report risk-advisory firm, noted that Iran is leveraging these attacks to fracture Saudi Arabia's alliance with the U.S. He explained Iran's message to the Saudis is that they could mediate with the Houthis and other groups to resolve these issues.

Global energy markets are already in a precarious state. The attacks occurred a week after oil prices briefly exceeded $100 a barrel for the first time since May, amid renewed strikes between the U.S. and Iran. Global oil storage is reportedly near its lowest levels, and strategic petroleum reserves may not be sustainable for much longer. This situation is politically disadvantageous for Trump, as the average gas price in the U.S. has again surpassed $4 per gallon.

The Houthis and Saudi Arabia have exchanged strikes recently, jeopardizing an informal ceasefire that has been in place since 2022. This conflict has already partially disrupted a crucial global energy market chokepoint and poses further risks to regional crude oil infrastructure.

Michael Ratney, former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia, emphasized that the threat extends beyond Saudi Arabia, stating, “It builds risk into the system in a way that gets priced up, and eventually that turns into higher prices at the gas pump.”