Key facts
- Europe faces growing concerns that the U.S. defense industrial base cannot fulfill its weapon commitments to NATO allies.
- U.S. stockpiles are depleted due to ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Iran.
- Key arms shipments, including Tomahawk missiles and Patriot PAC-3 missiles, have been delayed or canceled for European nations.
- Ukraine's president highlighted the inability to intercept missiles due to a lack of interceptor missiles.
- European diplomats expressed frustration over shortages, citing competing demands and a shift in U.S. focus.
- It is estimated that Europe will need 5-10 years to develop new defense production lines.
Growing concerns are emerging in Europe that the United States' defense industrial base is struggling to supply the weapons pledged to NATO allies. This situation stems from depleted U.S. stockpiles, exacerbated by the conflicts in Ukraine and Iran, leading European nations to explore alternative means of arming themselves.
As NATO leaders, including U.S. President Donald Trump, gather in Ankara, Turkey, discussions are expected to focus on European defense spending and the U.S. administration's commitment to the military alliance. This year, the U.S. has encountered delays or cancellations in delivering critical arms to Europe, such as Tomahawk cruise missiles, Himars mobile rocket artillery, and Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) missiles. The U.S. reportedly used approximately 50% of its PAC-3 missiles by April during its conflict with Iran, which are vital for countering missile threats in Ukraine and for European defense against potential Russian aggression.
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that the country was unable to intercept about 23 ballistic missiles launched in a recent attack, attributing this to insufficient supplies of interceptor missiles. He urged world leaders, particularly from America and European partners, to emerge from the NATO summit with strong decisions to support Ukraine's air defense.
European capitals have expressed quiet frustration over these shortages, seeking to maintain transatlantic relations. A European diplomat cited several issues, including dwindling stocks from the wars in Iran and Ukraine, a redirection of defense resources toward Asia, and the prioritization of interceptor missiles for allies like Israel. The diplomat noted that European nations are not the primary focus for these supplies.
President Trump and his administration have previously called for NATO allies to increase their defense spending, with a significant portion directed towards purchasing American arms. However, questions are now being raised about the reliability of future U.S. arms deliveries. An administration official indicated that announcements regarding co-production and the establishment of production lines in Europe and the U.S. might be made at the summit.
Despite these potential initiatives, diplomats estimate that it could take five to ten years for Europe to establish new defense production capabilities. This leaves a critical period where Europe may need to enhance its self-reliance while the U.S. considers reducing its troop presence and other capabilities. The Center for Strategic and International Studies estimates that it could take 42 months for the U.S. to replenish its own Patriot missile stockpiles, with approximately 20 countries currently awaiting deliveries. A former national security adviser pointed out that the Biden administration also faced delays in arms deliveries due to the Ukraine war, and that the scarcity of certain weapons, like Tomahawk missiles used extensively by the U.S. in Iran, means they are simply unavailable.