Key facts
- Mysterious drone flights over Europe between August 2024 and February 2026 are suspected to be part of a Kremlin campaign launched from Russian-linked ships.
- The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) report suggests these incursions probed allied defenses and revealed vulnerabilities.
- Drone sightings frequently occurred over military bases, critical infrastructure, and civilian airports.
- The Swedish military confirmed a drone launch from a Russian signals intelligence vessel in February 2026.
- The Orlan-10 drone is considered a likely candidate for maritime launches due to its range and payload capabilities.
Mysterious drone flights over Europe, impacting major airports and military bases, may be the work of a coordinated Kremlin campaign launched from Russian-linked commercial ships, according to a report by the UK-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).
The IISS report, utilizing maritime tracking data, suggests that Russian-linked vessels, including those from the 'shadow fleet' transporting sanctioned oil, were often located near the sites of drone incidents. These incursions, which affected a dozen NATO countries and Ireland between August 2024 and February 2026, revealed vulnerabilities in European air defenses against surveillance and harassment by low-cost drones.
Out of 144 identified drone sightings, 48 percent occurred over military bases, 26 percent over critical infrastructure like ports and energy facilities, and 18 percent over civilian airports. Most incidents took place at night and involved drones described as 'professional' or 'military-style.' The IISS noted that while not all sightings were confirmed as Russian or even real, the pattern was 'consistent with the Kremlin’s effort to probe allied defenses... and normalize low-level airspace violations.'
The only incident directly attributed to Russia occurred in February 2026 when the Swedish military confirmed jamming a drone launched from the Russian signals intelligence vessel Zhigulevsk within Swedish territorial waters. This event occurred while the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle and its escorts were nearby.
Potential drones for such operations include Russia's Merlin-VR, capable of shipboard catapult launch and parachute recovery, or vertical-take-off-and-landing (VTOL) drones like the Legioner E29. The Orlan-10, a fixed-wing drone with a 500-kilometer range and up to 12 hours of endurance, is also considered a strong candidate, fitting on mid-sized commercial vessels and capable of carrying payloads for signal spoofing and surveillance.
Drone sightings over UK military bases like RAF Lakenheath in November 2024 coincided with the presence of the cargo ship Hav Dolphin, which had a Russian crew. This same ship was later investigated by German authorities after anchoring near Kiel, Germany, during drone sightings over a nearby submarine base.
Similar incidents occurred over sensitive military sites in November 2024, including Kleine-Brogel Air Base in Belgium, which houses US nuclear weapons, and Ramstein Air Base in Germany, the headquarters for NATO Allied Air Command. The Netherlands' Volkel Air Base, capable of housing US nuclear bombs, experienced incursions on three separate days in November and December 2025, with one event involving up to 10 drones that evaded capture and briefly shut down civil air traffic at Eindhoven Airport.