Key facts
- China's gradual pressure tactics risk creating a new status quo in the Taiwan Strait.
- Taiwan's Ocean Affairs Council head Kuan Bi-ling warned that the international community may not realize the change until it is too late.
- Kuan stated China's maritime actions also pressure Japan and the Philippines.
- She described these 'grey zone' activities as steps that accumulate to alter the status quo without triggering a crisis.
- China views Taiwan as its own territory and conducts daily military activities around the island.
A senior Taiwanese official warned that China's escalating maritime pressure tactics risk creating a new status quo in the Taiwan Strait, which the international community may not recognize until it is too late. Kuan Bi-ling, head of Taiwan's Ocean Affairs Council, stated at a forum in Taipei that these gradual steps, which she termed 'grey zone' activities, could alter the situation without triggering an immediate crisis.
Kuan explained that individual actions may not appear to warrant an international crisis, but a series of accumulated actions could fundamentally change the existing order. She noted that China's actions are not only directed at Taiwan but also pressure Japan and the Philippines, particularly in disputed areas like the South China Sea. China, which considers Taiwan its territory, regularly sends military forces into the skies and waters around the island and employs tactics like Coast Guard patrols off Taiwan's east coast, which Taipei disputes.
She suggested that these pressures could eventually lead to adjustments in shipping routes, recalculations of risk by insurance companies, and increased pressure on frontline personnel. Kuan expressed concern that the international community, by repeatedly judging incidents as 'not yet a crisis,' might become accustomed to abnormal situations, leading to a de facto change in the status quo without a decisive war.
China's Taiwan Affairs Office did not immediately respond to a request for comment, blaming Taiwan and its President Lai Ching-te for tensions. Lai maintains that only Taiwan's people can decide their future. The United States, Britain, France, and Germany have previously expressed concern over new Chinese Coast Guard patrols near Taiwan's east coast. U.S. Senator Tammy Duckworth was also present at the forum.