Key facts
- Shipowners are closely monitoring a potential US-Iran peace deal affecting the Strait of Hormuz.
- Approximately 127 oil tankers are currently within the Persian Gulf.
- The Strait of Hormuz typically accounts for about 20% of global oil and LNG trade.
- Current daily oil flows through the Gulf are estimated between 4 to 7 million barrels.
- Oil prices have retreated significantly from their highs during the conflict.
- Some producers are positioning tankers to quickly resume exports if the strait fully reopens.
Shipowners are closely monitoring the potential for a US-Iran peace deal that could impact traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy chokepoint. While the waterway's effective closure since the start of the war threatened significant price shocks, markets have since adapted, and oil is increasingly flowing covertly through the strait.
Data indicates around 127 oil tankers are currently within the Persian Gulf, with many more positioned nearby, ready to capitalize on a potential reopening. Estimates vary, but current daily oil flows through the Gulf range from 4 to 7 million barrels, a significant reduction from the typical pre-war volume of about 20 million barrels. Ship-to-ship transfers near Oman and the UAE suggest substantial volumes are being moved, contributing to oil prices remaining well below their wartime peaks.
Despite hopes for a deal, past attempts have failed, and recent incidents, including crew deaths, highlight the risks involved. The exact terms of any reopening remain unclear, with interpretations of the memorandum of understanding potentially varying. Nevertheless, some shipowners are positioning their fleets in anticipation of increased demand and potential rate surges, while producers are also preparing to resume normal export levels.