The World Trade Organization (WTO) reported signs that global merchandise trade growth may be slowing, with its Goods Trade Barometer index falling to 101.7. Despite disruptions from the Middle East conflict, trade has shown resilience, partly due to demand for AI-related electronic components. The index remains above the 100 baseline, indicating trade volume is still above trend.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) has indicated that global merchandise trade growth may be starting to slow. The WTO's Goods Trade Barometer, which predicts trade developments two to three months ahead, saw its index fall from 102.3 in January to 101.7. While this suggests a potential weakening, the index remains above its baseline value of 100, indicating that trade volume is still above trend. The report noted that global merchandise trade had shown resilience in the first half of 2026, despite widespread disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict. The negative impact of the conflict may have been partly offset by surging demand for electronic components related to artificial intelligence. Previously, the WTO had projected world trade in goods growth to slow markedly to 1.9% in 2026 from 4.6% in 2025, with further deceleration possible if the Middle East war continued to push energy prices higher and disrupt global transport. The electronic components index showed a rise firmly above trend at 105.5, while the agricultural raw materials index was slightly below trend. Air freight and container shipping were growing at a slower rate than a few months ago, but were still above trend at 102.2 and 102.4 respectively. The report stated that, on balance, the indices show signs of resilience, signalling relatively stable global merchandise trade growth.
Slowing global merchandise trade can indicate a broader economic slowdown, impacting businesses, supply chains, and consumer prices worldwide. Disruptions from geopolitical events like the Middle East conflict further complicate trade flows and can lead to increased costs.