Key facts
- Goldman Sachs predicts Spain to win the 2026 Football World Cup.
- The prediction is based on a model using Elo ratings.
- Spain has a 26% probability of winning, France 19%, and Argentina 14%.
- The model uses nearly 20,000 international matches since 1978.
- Current Polymarket odds show France as the favorite, differing from Goldman's prediction.
Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius has published a prediction for the 2026 Football World Cup, forecasting Spain as the most likely winner with a 26% probability. This forecast utilizes a model built on Elo ratings, a system originally developed for chess, to assess team strengths. Following Spain, France is predicted to have a 19% chance of winning, with Argentina at 14%, Brazil at 8%, and England at 5%. Hatzius noted that Spain's top ranking, scoring talent, and momentum support this prediction. He also cited factors penalizing other top teams, such as Argentina's 'winner's slump' as reigning champions, France's potential semifinal match against Spain, and England's historical tournament disappointments and challenging draw. The model, which estimates goal-scoring probabilities based on nearly 20,000 international matches since 1978, places Spain ahead of FIFA's official rankings. This prediction contrasts with current Polymarket odds, where France is the favorite at 17%, followed by Spain at 16% and England at 11%.