CBOT corn, soybean, and wheat futures declined due to concerns over proposed US tariffs on China potentially impacting a trade deal. Soybean exports increased week-over-week, but July Soybean futures hit their lowest closing level since early February amid speculative liquidation.
CBOT corn, soybean, and wheat futures experienced a significant price decline due to speculation that proposed US tariffs under Section 301 could prompt China to withdraw from a trade agreement involving 25 million metric tons of US soybeans and $17 billion in goods. AgResource Company expressed doubt that the tariffs would damage the trade deal. In separate data, soybean exports increased by 115,000 MT from the previous week, bringing cumulative exports up 5.6% year-to-date. USDA projects global soybean exports to rise 1.3% year-over-year. July Soybean futures settled sharply lower, marking their lowest closing level since early February, as large speculators liquidated long positions. This technical breakdown occurred despite weekly export sales data landing within consensus expectations. CBOT soybean futures fell 25 cents on Thursday, with July falling below the 200-day moving average for the first time since late January. The soy product spread finished 42 cents lower, led by a steep correction in soyoil.
The potential breakdown of a significant US-China trade deal for agricultural goods, coupled with technical selling pressure in soybean futures, highlights the sensitivity of commodity markets to geopolitical tensions and speculative positioning.