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Sweden's ruling bloc trails opposition in new poll, gap narrows

Created at 13 Aug · 8:44 AM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

A new poll shows Sweden's right-wing coalition government trailing center-left opposition parties ahead of the September 13 parliamentary election. The gap has narrowed since June, but the Liberal party's low support threatens the government's chances.

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Key Numbers

50.6%opposition parties' support
48.9%opposition parties' 2022 election support
46.9%governing bloc's support
49.6%governing bloc's last election support
2.4%Liberals' support
4%threshold for Riksdag seats
30.2%Social Democrats' support
30.3%Social Democrats' support four years ago
16.8%Moderate Party's support
19.1%Moderate Party's support four years ago
20.2%Sweden Democrats' support
20.5%Sweden Democrats' support four years ago
2,016voters surveyed

Who's Involved

Magdalena Andersson
Leader of the Social Democrats and potential prime minister
Ulf Kristersson
Prime Minister and leader of the Moderate Party
Jimmie Akesson
Leader of the Sweden Democrats
Demoskop
Pollster for the survey
Sweden's ruling bloc trails opposition in new poll, gap narrows

↳ Why This Matters

The poll results indicate a potential shift in Sweden's political landscape, with implications for domestic policy, including welfare spending, and potentially for international commitments such as support for Ukraine.

Key facts

  • Sweden's ruling right-wing coalition government is trailing center-left opposition parties ahead of the September 13 parliamentary election.
  • The gap between the two sides has narrowed since June.
  • Support for the opposition parties stands at 50.6%, while the governing bloc has 46.9%.
  • The Liberal party, a junior coalition member, polled 2.4%, below the 4% threshold to win seats.
  • The Social Democrats are polling at 30.2%, and the Moderate Party at 16.8%.

STOCKHOLM, Aug 13 (Reuters) - Sweden's ruling right-wing coalition government is lagging center-left opposition parties ahead of the September 13 parliamentary election, but the gap between the two sides has narrowed since June, a new opinion poll showed. The July 29 to August 10 survey, published by the daily Svenska Dagbladet, indicated that Social Democrats leader Magdalena Andersson may again become prime minister after four years in opposition, replacing Ulf Kristersson of the right-wing Moderates. The election campaign is focusing on cost of living, security, immigration, crime, and energy supply. Support for the four opposition parties, led by Andersson's Social Democrats, stood at 50.6%, an increase from the 48.9% they won in the 2022 election, according to the survey of 2,016 voters by pollster Demoskop. The backing for Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson's governing bloc, which includes the closely aligned far-right Sweden Democrats, was 46.9%, a decrease from the 49.6% they won in the last election four years ago. In a blow to the government's prospects, junior coalition member the Liberals polled just 2.4%, well below the 4% threshold required to win seats in the Riksdag. Andersson's Social Democrats were set to win 30.2% of the vote, compared to 30.3% four years ago, while the Moderate Party could see a decline to 16.8% from 19.1% over the same period. It remains unclear which opposition parties Andersson would form a government with, but a shift in power would likely involve increased welfare spending with no significant changes to immigration, defense, or support for Ukraine. The Sweden Democrats, who aim to join the cabinet for the first time if the right-wing bloc wins, had 20.2% support, down from 20.5%. Their leader, Jimmie Akesson, has stated his party's intention to hold several major ministerial posts.

Frequently asked questions

The Swedish parliamentary election is scheduled for September 13.

The election campaign is focusing on cost of living, security, immigration, crime, and energy supply.

The threshold for parties to win seats in the Riksdag is 4%.

What Happens Next

01Swedes go to the polls on September 13 for the parliamentary election.

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Cadence

How It Developed

A new opinion poll shows Sweden's ruling right-wing coalition government lagging center-left opposition parties.
The gap between the two sides has narrowed since June.
Support for the four opposition parties stands at 50.6%, up from 48.9% in the 2022 election.
Support for the governing bloc, including the Sweden Democrats, is at 46.9%, down from 49.6% in the last election.
Junior coalition member the Liberals polled 2.4%, below the 4% threshold for Riksdag seats.
The Social Democrats are polling at 30.2%, while the Moderate Party is at 16.8%.
The Sweden Democrats have 20.2% support.

Sources

T1
Sweden's right-wing government lags in poll, but gap narrowsReuters

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