Key facts
- Poland's Law and Justice (PiS) party has officially split into two factions.
- The split occurred after months of internal disputes over issues including military aid to Ukraine and domestic policies.
- Former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki leads a newly formed moderate faction, while Przemysław Czarnek leads the more radical wing of PiS.
- Morawiecki and 40 lawmakers have formed a new parliamentary group, and Morawiecki has stepped down as leader of the ECR group.
- The division weakens the opposition ahead of next year's parliamentary elections, potentially benefiting Prime Minister Donald Tusk's government.
- Far-right parties are gaining support, challenging PiS's historical dominance on the Polish right.
Poland's dominant conservative party, Law and Justice (PiS), has fractured into two distinct factions ahead of the upcoming parliamentary elections, a development that could significantly alter the country's political landscape. The split, confirmed on July 29, follows months of internal discord over a range of issues, including the extent of military aid to Ukraine, economic policies, and the growing influence of the far-right.
The more moderate wing, led by former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, has formally separated from the party, with Morawiecki and 40 lawmakers establishing a new parliamentary group. This move formalizes a division that had been anticipated for weeks and signals a potential weakening of the opposition's ability to challenge Prime Minister Donald Tusk's liberal coalition. Morawiecki also resigned his leadership of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group in the European Parliament.
The party's more radical faction is now led by Przemysław Czarnek, who has been nominated as the party's prime ministerial candidate. Political scientists suggest this separation could lead to PiS losing a significant number of seats in the upcoming elections. Polling data indicates Morawiecki's new party is polling around 5%, while PiS has fallen to 22%, a four-percentage-point decrease from previous polls.
The fragmentation of PiS occurs amidst a broader shift in Poland's right-wing political sphere, with far-right parties like Confederation and the Polish Crown experiencing a surge in support. For the first time in two decades, PiS is no longer the undisputed leader on the Polish right. In an effort to retain voters, PiS has increasingly adopted more right-wing rhetoric and policies, a strategy that has also been observed in other European and U.S. hard-right movements.
Analysts note that the rise of far-right sentiment is mirrored by an increase in anti-Ukrainian sentiment and attacks on Ukrainians within Poland. While PiS and Tusk's Civic Coalition have historically been allies of Kyiv, the party under Czarnek's leadership has reportedly moved in an anti-Ukrainian direction. This contrasts with the previous stance of PiS leaders like Morawiecki, who were prominent faces of support for Ukraine. Younger politicians within PiS are seen as more likely to align with anti-Ukrainian voter sentiment.
Historically, PiS drew support from smaller towns, rural areas, and older voters without university degrees. However, demographic trends are not favorable for the party in the long term. Experts also suggest PiS failed to learn from its 2023 election loss, misinterpreting the victory of its presidential candidate, Karol Nawrocki, as a sign of broader support for PiS rather than a win influenced by the far-right. Furthermore, some of PiS's past government policies, such as an influx of migrants, were unpopular with some right-wing voters. The rise of anti-immigrant rhetoric has been a key driver for parties like Confederation and the Polish Crown. Political scientists predict that with the far-right gaining ground and Morawiecki's faction splitting off, PiS's electoral prospects have diminished, potentially positioning it as one of several parties on the right rather than its historically dominant force.