Key facts
- Poland's ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party has split, with former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki leading a breakaway faction.
- The rupture occurred after PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński demanded loyalty, leading to about 45 lawmakers leaving the party.
- The split could empower hard-right parties like Konfederacja, which oppose Ukraine's EU membership.
- Recent polls show a decline in support for PiS following the internal feud.
- The opposition's shift to the right poses challenges for the EU and Ukraine's integration prospects.
Poland's political landscape is undergoing a significant shift as the dominant nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party has fractured ahead of the 2027 elections. The party, which governed from 2015 to 2023 and frequently clashed with Brussels over rule of law and LGBTQ+ rights, split last Friday following a dispute between its long-time leader, Jarosław Kaczyński, and former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki.
The rupture has led to about 45 lawmakers breaking away from PiS, forming a new faction led by Morawiecki. This development has been viewed positively by allies of the current pro-EU Prime Minister Donald Tusk, as PiS's support has reportedly declined in recent polls. However, the split may not necessarily benefit Tusk's coalition in the long term.
Instead, the division within PiS could push the party further to the right, seeking to consolidate its base by aligning with more hardline factions. Parties like Konfederacja, and Grzegorz Braun's Federation of the Polish Crown movement, which oppose Ukraine's European Union membership and advocate for Poland's withdrawal from the bloc, stand to gain influence. These parties are seen as potential kingmakers in forming a future right-wing majority government.
Konfederacja has outlined strict conditions for any potential coalition, including no further transfer of powers to the EU and a firm rejection of Ukraine's EU membership bid. While Morawiecki's camp has ruled out cooperation with Braun's more radical movement, some within PiS are open to a 'non-aggression pact' with the breakaway faction, viewing Tusk's government as the primary adversary.
Speculation is also mounting that President Karol Nawrocki, who was elected with support from both PiS and Konfederacja voters, could play a role in unifying the fragmented right-wing parties. Despite the internal turmoil, combined support for right-wing parties has remained strong in some surveys, suggesting that even a fragmented right could pose a significant challenge to the current government.